The bipartisan support of democratic norms is eroding

Political scientist Seth Masket wrote the following this week:
“Norms are what really keep a democratic system running. Good constitutional design is obviously important, but it doesn’t ensure a thriving or stable liberal democracy. The American presidential system has been replicated in many other nations, particularly in Latin America, with far less successful results, in large part due to different norms about what is and isn’t acceptable.”
This is different than supporting or opposing Obamacare or having different opinions about ideal levels of taxation. It’s about supporting and defending the political framework that enables those discussions to take place while avoiding civil conflict and political instability.
Traditionally, both Democrats and Republicans have agreed (despite their other differences) that this framework is good and worth defending, but this bipartisan agreement is starting to disappear.
As citizens of a democratic political system (regardless of whether you’re a liberal or conservative or anything else) it’s up to us to fix it. If we’re not up to the task, then we will get the government that we deserve.
I recommend reading his blog post in its entirety here.

Defending American democracy is not a partisan opinion

I take very seriously my professional obligation to not publicly engage in partisan debates just for the sake of partisanship. I also take seriously the importance of not being an alarmist.

But I also take seriously my responsibilities as a citizen of a liberal democratic society, which places upon me an obligation of speaking out when that system of government is under active threat. Now is one of those times.

Please read my recent Huffington Post piece entitled “Not kidding around: Donald Trump is actively threatening American democracy.

Then take action!

 

2016 Colonel’s Canvass Poll: polling results vs. voting results

The 2016 Colonel’s Canvass Poll, conducted October 18-23, showed Hillary Clinton with the support of 44.9% of likely voters and Donald Trump with 40% of likely voters, with a 4.1% margin of error.

That means that there was a 95% chance that Hillary Clinton’s level of support was anywhere from 40.8% and 49% and Donald Trump’s level of support was anywhere from 35.9% to 44.1%.

As of 12/9/2016, Hillary Clinton had won the popular vote with 48.04% compared to Donald Trump’s 46.08%. Our polling estimate for Clinton support was therefore off by 3.14% and our estimate for Trump was off by 6.08%.

It is important to note, though, that our poll was conducted three weeks before the election. It also showed Johnson with 6% support, “someone else” with 2.7%, and “don’t know” with 5.4%. As usually happens before elections, support for the third-party options decreased and support for the two-party candidates increased.

In sum, there is little evidence that our poll was “way off” or incorrect. Our poll correctly predicted Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote. Like most other national polls, we slightly over-estimated Clinton’s level of support and moderately under-estimated Trump’s level of support. In the end, however, our poll showed Clinton winning by 5% whereas she is currently winning the popular vote by about 2% in the final tabulation. A 3% difference is within the traditionally-accepted margins of standard polling error.

Why President-Elect Trump’s bluster about flag burning is worth worrying about

 

Is this purely bluster? Perhaps.

But so far he’s tried to do the things he promised to do during the campaign, even the bluster. For example, he followed through on the racism bluster by nominating a white nationalist (Steve Bannon) as Chief Strategist. He has followed through on the Islamophobia bluster by nominating someone who believes Islam to be a “cancer” (Michael Flynn) as National Security Adviser.

Therefore, it’s not entirely outside the realm of possibility that he will try to take steps to weaken other First Amendment freedoms once in office. These might possibly eventually include freedom of assembly and freedom of religion.

It is not a partisan opinion to state that threatening jail time or the revocation of citizenship for those who exercise their First Amendment civil liberties is clearly outside the traditional norms and boundaries of liberal democracy (as offensive as flag burning or other forms of expression might be to us).

As someone who believes that liberal democracy is a preferably form of government to autocracy or authoritarianism, I see rhetoric like this to be potentially harmful to liberal democracy whether it comes from Republicans or Democrats or anyone else. Even though it may just be bluster, the evidence so far is that our President-Elect believes the things he blusters about and will try to implement them.

Therefore, it is worth taking the President-Elect at his word and worrying when he threatens to weaken or undermine the core tenets of liberal democracy, including First Amendment freedoms.

Boyle County views on the effectiveness of the Danville-EDP partnership

The 2016 Boyle County Exit Poll asked voters the following question:

How effective is the partnership between the City of Danville and the EDP organization at promoting jobs and economic growth in the area?

In all, 9% said very effective, 50.8% somewhat effective, 13.3% somewhat not effective, 7.5% not effective and 19.4% had no opinion or did not respond.

Similar to previous analyses, I used a “multivariate regression” analysis to see what political or demographic characteristics best predict whether a voter thinks that the partnership between Danville and the EDP is effective or not at promoting jobs and economic growth. Here are the results:

Boyle County’s economy has gotten better 41.1%
Boyle County is on the right track 34.9%
Age 20.8%
Religiosity 14.9%
Income 11.3%
Gender 9.4%


(For statistics nerds, these are the minimum to max predicted probabilities of each factor in predicting an “approve” preference in a logistic regression model. Presented coefficients are statistically significant at p<0.10.)

This is telling us that, controlling for all other factors, Boyle County voters who say that the county’s economy has gotten better over this past year are 41.4% more likely to think that the Danville-EDP partnership is effective at promoting jobs and economic growth than those who think it has gotten worse. Similarly, those who say that Boyle County is “heading in the right direction” are 34.9% more likely to think that the Danville-EDP partnership is effective.

We also see that basic demographics seem to matter. Voters over 75 are 20.8% less likely to think the partnership is effective than voters under 35. Those who attend religious services more than once a week are 14.9% more likely to think the partnership is effective than those who never attend. Voters who make over $50K/year are 11.3% less likely to think the partnership is effective than those who make less than $20K/year. Finally, men are 9.4% less likely to think the partnership is effective than women.

Factors that did not matter in predicting opinions on this issue include a person’s political partisanship/ideology, level of education, and race/ethnicity. Also, whether or not a person is a Danville or county resident did not matter. Also, a voter’s approval or disapproval of the Danville City Commission or Mayor Perros did not make a difference.

In sum, views on the Danville-EDP partnership are generally good, with half of Boyle County voters saying the partnership is “somewhat effective” and another 9% saying “very effective” (and about 20% having no opinion either way.) Whether or not a Boyle County voter sees the partnership as either somewhat or very effective are tied strongly to whether the person in generally sees the county economy as improving and the community as heading in the right direction.

Boyle County preferences on repurposing the Tennessee Gas Pipeline

The 2016 Boyle County Exit Poll asked voters the following question:

Do you approve or disapprove of the proposal to repurpose the Tennessee Gas Pipeline (which runs through Boyle County) from natural to liquid gas and reversing the direction of flow to north-to-south?

Based on response patterns, I estimate that 38.2% of Boyle County voters approve and 43.7% disapprove with 18.1% having no opinion.

Similar to previous analyses, I used a “multivariate regression” analysis to see what political or demographic characteristics best predict whether a voter approves or disapproves (among those who have an opinion one way or the other). Here are the results:

Republican political partisanship 32%
Age 18.6%
Male gender 12.1%


(For statistics nerds, these are the minimum to max predicted probabilities of each factor in predicting an “approve” preference in a logistic regression model. Presented coefficients are statistically significant at p<0.05.)

This is telling us that, controlling for all other factors, being a Republican was the strongest factor in predicting whether someone approves of repurposing the gas pipeline. Republicans were 32% more likely than Democrats to say “approve.” Also, age seems to make a difference. Older voters were less likely to approve of repurposing the gas pipeline. Those over 75 were 18.6% less likely to approve than those under 35. Finally, men were 12.1% more likely than women to approve of repurposing the gas pipeline.

Factors that did not matter in predicting preferences on this issue include political ideology, income, religiosity, education, or race/ethnicity. Also, a person’s perspective on whether Boyle County is on the right or wrong track or how the Boyle economy is doing are not associated with preferences on this issue.

UPDATE 11/16/2016: it was recently brought to my attention that the question wording was not 100% accurate in describing this issue. The survey said “liquid gas” when in fact the proposal is to repurpose the pipeline for “natural gas liquids.” I appreciate the clarification being brought to my attention and regret the error.

Boyle County voting patterns for Kentucky’s 54th state house seat

The 2016 Boyle County Exit Poll asked voters who they voted for in the Kentucky 54th state legislative race (Boyle and Casey counties) between incumbent Republican Daniel Elliot and challenger Democrat Bill Noelker. The survey also asked a variety of other questions about the voter’s political opinions and demographic characteristics. I used a “multivariate regression” analysis to see what difference these various factors made in predicting a vote for Daniel Elliot in Boyle County, controlling for the effect of every other factor. Here are the results:

Republican political partisanship 46.6%
Governor Bevin approval 39.5%
President Obama disapproval 32.9%
Kentucky rural resource distribution 31.2%
White race/ethnicity 25%
Frequent church attendance 23.8%


(For statistics nerds, these are the minimum to max predicted probabilities of each factor in predicting a vote for Elliot in a logistic regression model. Presented coefficients are statistically significant at p<0.05.)

This is telling us that, controlling for all other factors, being a Republican was the strongest factor in predicting a vote for Daniel Elliot in Boyle County: Republicans were 46.6% more likely than Democrats to do so. Approval of Governor Matt Bevin was the second-highest factor: those who approve of Governor Bevin were 39.5% more likely to vote for Elliot than those who disapprove. Similarly, those who disapprove of President Obama were 32.9% less likely to vote for Elliot than those who approve.

Interestingly, those who say that the Kentucky state government does not do a good job at distributing resources equally between Louisville/Lexington and rural parts of the state were 31.2% more likely to vote for Elliot than those who think the Kentucky state government does a very good job.

Two demographic factors also made a differences: white voters were 25% more likely to vote for Elliot than non-white voters and those who attend religious services once a week or more were 23.8% more likely to vote for Elliot than those who never attend religious services.

There are also several things that did not matter in predicting a vote for Elliot over Bevin once these other factors were controlled for. These included a voter’s gender, income, age, or level of education. It also included whether or not the voter thought Boyle County was on the right or wrong track as well as whether they thought that Boyle County’s economy had gotten better or worse over this past year.

In sum, voting patterns in the 54th state legislative race (for Boyle County voters, at least) was mostly a function of political partisanship with some degree of concern about how Kentucky distributes resources between rural and urban parts of the state. Race and religion also played a smaller role.