Which Kentucky Democratic primary candidate is best positioned to challenge Mitch McConnell in November 2020?

Senator Mitch McConnell

There are ten Democrats vying for the honor of challenging incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell this fall. The three most prominent are Amy McGrath, a retired Marine Corps Lt. Colonel who narrowly lost a 2018 challenge to incumbent Congressman Andy Barr in Kentucky’s 6^th district, Kentucky State Representative Charles Booker, and Marine Corps veteran Mike Broihier.

Amy McGrath

In a recent debate, McGrath presented herself as an electable moderate who can appeal to Trump voters while Booker and Broihier hammered her for these moderate positions and presented themselves as solidly liberal alternatives. While there is, again, a conspicuous absence of head-to-head polling in this race, McGrath is heavily favored to win due to her name recognition and fundraising advantage, as well as her strong endorsement by the DSCC. That said, Booker’s profile has risen in recent days due to his visible participation in the ongoing protest events in Louisville surrounding the deaths of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, and others.

Charles Booker

All three argue that they are the best bet to beat McConnell this fall, and have drawn attention to the smattering of polls from January that show McConnell and McGrath or a generic Democratic challenger in a statistical tie.

Mike Broihier

The fundamentals are that partisans tend to vote for their party’s candidate in federal-level elections, and roughly 53% of Kentucky voters identify as Republicans or Republican-leaners. Assuming this pattern holds, the Democratic Senate nominee will need to persuade and mobilize the handful of voters who identify as pure Independents as well as a critical mass of Kentucky Republican voters, 90% of whom have a favorable view of Donald Trump, in order to win.

There is some recent precedent for this. Last year, Democratic Governor Andy Beshear won an extremely narrow victory over unpopular Republican incumbent Matt Bevin by, in part, winning 16% of Republican voters. This may not be a “perfect parallel,” though, as Perry Bacon Jr. has written, “because governors races tend to be more localized and Senate races more nationalized. In 2016, every U.S. Senate election was won by the same party that won the presidential race in that state.”

The key question, I think, will be whether Kentucky Republican voters see Mitch McConnell as more like Trump (who they like a lot) or more like former Governor Matt Bevin (who they didn’t like as much). If they see McConnell more likely they see Trump, he’ll probably have a relatively easy path to reelection. If they see him more like Bevin, though, then the Democratic candidate might have a shot if he or she can peel off some Republican voters. Which candidate is best poised to do that?

A 2019 Kentucky exit poll fielded by yours truly and a collaborative of political scientists from institutions around Kentucky showed that among these 16% of Republican voters who crossed party lines to vote for Andy Beshear, 42% said they had a very/somewhat favorable view of Joe Biden and 27% said the same about Bernie Sanders.

Now, Biden and Sanders are not the same people as McGrath, Booker, and Broihier. That said, if Kentucky voters are thinking in terms of ideological lanes and strategy styles, Biden and McGrath both present themselves as pragmatic moderates and Sanders, Booker, and Broihier present themselves as more consistent ideologues.

If (and it’s a big IF) those same Republican-Beshear voters think about the Senate race the same way they did about the governors race last year, this would suggest that McGrath has an edge over Booker or Broihier in attracting Republicans who might be willing to cross party lines, as they more of them view Joe Biden favorably compared to Bernie Sanders.

Digging even deeper, this same exit poll shows that among Kentucky Republicans who have a favorable view of Donald Trump but an unfavorable view of Mitch McConnell, 22% view Biden favorably compared to 16% who view Sanders favorably. Again, assuming that they view the Senate race the same way they did about the governors race last year, McGrath has a very small edge in the likelihood of attracting Republican voters  who like Trump but not McConnell.

The bottom line? This November, most Kentucky Republicans will vote for McConnell and most Kentucky Democrats will vote for the Democratic candidate, regardless of whoever wins the primary election this month. All three leading Democratic primary candidates would have a shot of peeling off the Republican votes that they would need to win, but the exit poll shows some evidence that, all other things being equal, Amy McGrath might be able to peel off a few more than either Charles Booker or Mike Broihier.

 

Kentucky exit poll suggests more warning signs for Mitch McConnell than for Donald Trump in the aftermath of Tuesday’s gubernatorial election

There has been no small amount of punditry this week on what implications, if any, Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin’s narrow loss to Democratic challenger Andy Beshear might have for President Trump or Senator McConnell in 2020 next year.

Some have argued that Bevin’s loss was “a smack at both Mitch McConnell and the president, sending up a cautionary note” while others have said that Bevin’s loss “tells us nothing about McConnell’s chances in 2020.”

The 2019 Collaborative Kentucky Exit Poll (CKEP) surveyed nearly 4,000 voters in Tuesday’s gubernatorial election. The results offer some clues into what Bevin’s loss might mean for 2020 for both Trump and McConnell.

President Trump

Partisan identity is the strongest and most consistent predictor of presidential voting patterns in modern American elections. The CKEP survey showed that Republicans (and Republican leaners) made up about 53% of Kentucky voters in this Tuesday’s election. The survey also showed that 88% of Kentucky Republicans say that they have a very/somewhat favorable view of Trump as well as roughly half of Kentucky Independents (who made up about 6% of all voters). If these patterns hold through next year, Trump is on track to win roughly 55% of the vote next year, give or take.

But what about the Kentucky Republicans who crossed party lines to vote for Andy Beshear last week? The CKEP survey showed that one in six Republicans (16%) voted for Beshear. Given the similarities of their campaigns and the governing styles of Trump and Bevin, would those same 16% be persuadable to vote for a Democrat for president in 2020?

Not necessarily. It turns out that Trump has a 55% favorability rating among those Republicans who voted for Democrat Andy Beshear for governor. Among that same group, only 42% view Biden favorably and 34% view Warren favorably.

Does favorability, though, translate into voting? The Boyle County portion of the KCEP asked voters whether they believed that various elected officials deserved reelection or whether it was time to give someone else a shot. Among Boyle County voters, 92% of those who view Trump favorably believe he deserves reelection compared to only 5% among those who view him unfavorably. So it’s fairly safe to assume that for President Trump, favorability and intention to vote are virtually interchangeable.

Let’s say roughly half of the Republican-Beshear voters (8% of all voters in Kentucky voters on Tuesday) who have an unfavorable view of Trump (45% of them) defect to the Democratic candidate in 2020. That’d put Trump somewhere around 51%-52%. This is definitely close, but still enough to win the state.

The bigger takeaway, in my view, is that Kentucky voters did not end up linking their views of Donald Trump and Matt Bevin in Tuesday’s election as strongly as either of them had intended and hoped for.

Mitch McConnell

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will be running for reelection as Kentucky’s senior senator next year. The CKEP survey revealed that McConnell is not as popular as Donald Trump in his own home state. McConnell is viewed either somewhat or very favorably by 46% of Kentucky voters on Tuesday compared to 55% who say the same about President Trump.

Also, the link between favorability, partisanship, and reelection is a little weaker for Mitch McConnell than it is for Donald Trump.

For example, McConnell enjoys only about a 74% favorability rating among Kentucky Republican/leaners, 44% among Independents, and 11% among Democrats/leaners. Also, when we drill down into opinions on reelection among Boyle County voters specifically, a full 19% of those who view McConnell favorably think he should not be reelected. Also, one full third (31%) of Boyle County Republican/leaners think he should not be reelected.

As far as the link between attitudes toward McConnell and Trump, only 81% of those who view Trump favorably see McConnell favorably while 92% of those who view Trump unfavorably also view McConnell unfavorably.

Looking again at those Republican-Beshear voters which made up about 8% of the electorate on Tuesday, McConnell has a 62% unfavorability rating. If that same group is willing to cross party lines again next year (emphasis: a big ‘if’!), that’s potentially 10% of Kentucky Republicans (or 5% of everyone who voted this past Tuesday) who might be persuadable to support a Democrat in next year’s Kentucky senate race.

Of course, the odds are still in McConnell’s favor given that Kentucky is a red state and that he outperformed the October polls by about 6% in his last Senate race in 2014. It’s still an uphill battle for any Democrat looking to take on the nation’s Senate Majority Leader.

At the same time, McConnell’s support among Republicans and those who approve of President Trump is weaker than he would prefer going into an election year. Kentucky Democrats will be strongly motivated to knock him out and will likely turn out en masse to vote against President Trump as well in 2020.

This suggests that one good strategy for Kentucky Democrats might be to focus their efforts on the 16% of Republicans who were willing to cross party lines to vote for Beshear last week. The CKEP survey showed that nearly two in five of these (38%) were under age 40. It may be a smart move for the eventual Democratic nominee to focus his or her appeal on Kentucky’s younger voters.

2019 Boyle County Exit Poll: Topline Results

A PDF version of this report is available here.

The 2019 Boyle County Exit Poll (BCEP) was administered by Dr. Benjamin Knoll, Dr. Ryan Lloyd, and Dr. Jaclyn Johnson of Centre College in Boyle County, Kentucky on November 5, 2019. This 2019 BCEP is part of a wider series of surveys administered around Kentucky on Election by researchers at the University of Kentucky, Morehead State University, Campbellsville University, and the University of Cincinnati.

Approximately 75 Centre College students were on-site from 6:00 AM through 6:00 PM surveying voters as they left the polling locations. Respondents were randomly selected by interviewers to participate in the survey. In all, 1,832 Boyle County voters participated in the exit poll. For comparison, the Kentucky Secretary of State’s website reports that 10,400 individuals voted in Boyle County on Election Day, meaning that this survey contains the views of approximately 1 out of every 6 voters in Boyle County.

This year’s survey had a response rate of 55.1%. (We asked a total of 3,325 people to take the survey and 1,832 of them agreed.) This is slightly higher than the response rates that were achieved in previous Boyle County Exit Poll years of 48.4% in 2016, 47.5% in 2015, 47.4% in 2014, and 50.5% in 2012. (This is similar to other national exit poll response rates.)

It should be noted that this is an exit poll of voters only and therefore these figures should not be interpreted as fully representative of all adults in Boyle County, but rather of 2019 Election Day voters in Boyle County, Kentucky. The margin of error for the full sample is ±2% and approximately ±3.5% for subsamples.

We gratefully acknowledge the assistance of Michele Margolis, Dan Hopkins, and David Azizi at the University of Pennsylvania for their valuable assistance in preparing and processing the survey results. All errors are our own.

 

VOTING FOR GOVERNOR IN BOYLE COUNTY: DEMOGRAPHICS

The following tables are read going across. Example: 54.6% of men voted for Bevin compared to 42.6% who voted for Beshear, while 42.7% of women voted for Bevin compared to 56% who voted for Beshear.

Figures due not round to 100% due to a small number of write-in candidates for each office.

	MATT BEVIN (R)	ANDY BESHEAR (D)	JOHN HICKS (L)
Male	54.6%	42.6%	2.9%
Female	42.7%	56%	1.2%
White	51.9%	45.8%	2.2%
Black	15.9%	84.2%	0%
Other race/ethnicity	41.3%	58.7%	0%
Income over $50K/year	47.3%	50.6%	2%
Income $20K-$50K/year	52.2%	44.1%	2.8%
Income uncer $20K/year	43.2%	53.8%	3%
High school or less	53.8%	41.2%	4.3%
Some college	47.9%	51.3%	0.7%
College degree	38.2%	49.6%	2.4%
Age under 40	36%	60%	4%
Age 40-64	61.6%	46.3%	2.1%
Age over 65	53.8%	45.6%	0.6%
Attend religious services weekly or more	57.8%	40.5%	1.7%
Attend religious services sometimes	45.9%	51.4%	1.6%
Attend religious services never	29.5%	66%	4.6%
Consider yourself an Evangelical or ‘born-again’ Christian?	60.8%	37.9%	1.3%
Do NOT consider yourself an Evangelical or ‘born-again’ Christian	30.4%	65.8%	3.8%

 

VOTING FOR GOVERNOR IN BOYLE COUNTY: KENTUCKY ECONOMY

	MATT BEVIN (R)	ANDY BESHEAR (D)	JOHN HICKS (L)
Kentucky’s economy has gotten better recently	79.9%	16.3%	3.7%
Kentucky’s economy has gotten worse lately	5.8%	92.8%	1.4%
Kentucky’s economy has stayed the same recently	24.3%	74%	1.6%
Trump’s trade war with China has had a positive impact on Kentucky’s economy	85.2%	12.7%	2.2%
Trump’s trade war with China has had a negative impact on Kentucky’s economy	11.4%	85.5%	3.1%
Trump’s trade war with China has had no impact on Kentucky’s economy	49.7%	48.5%	1.4%

 

VOTING FOR GOVERNOR IN BOYLE COUNTY: PARTISANSHIP AND POLITICAL VIEWS

	MATT BEVIN (R)	ANDY BESHEAR (D)	JOHN HICKS (L)
Republicans	81.8%	15.3%	2.3%
Democrats	5.4%	93.6%	1.1%
Independents	42.4%	45.44%	12.3%
Favorable view of Donald Trump	82.1%	15.9%	2%
Unfavorable view of Donald Trump	7.2%	89.7%	3.2%
Voted for Cameron (R) for Attorney General	80.8%	15.6%	3.7%
Voted for Stumbo (D) for Attorney General	6.2%	92.8%	1%
Voted for Adams (R) for Sec of State	83.5%	12.6%	3.4%
Voted for Henry (D) for Attorney General	9.1%	89.4%	1.4%

 

COMPARISON OF VOTING FOR OTHER STATE-WIDE OFFICES IN BOYLE COUNTY:

KY GOVERNOR	MATT BEVIN (R)	ANDY BESHEAR (D)	JOHN HICKS (L)
Republicans	81.8%	15.3%	2.3%
Democrats	5.4%	93.6%	1.1%
Independents	42.4%	45.44%	12.3%

 

KY ATTORNEY GENERAL	DANIEL CAMERON (R)	GREGORY STUMBO (D)
Republicans	92.2%	7%
Democrats	9.1%	90.3%
Independents	64.1%	35.6%

 

KY SEC OF STATE	MICHAEL ADAMS (R)	HEATHER FRENCH HENRY (D)
Republicans	88.7%	11.3%
Democrats	4%	95.4%
Independents	49.7%	45.2%

 

 

OPINIONS ON LOCAL ISSUES

“What is the single most important problem our local area needs to solve? (check only one)”

• Prescription drug abuse: 21.5%
• Crime 17.8%
• Education 15.7%
• Job creation 10.8%
• Roads and sidewalks: 10.3%
• Economic development: 7.1%
• High taxes: 7%
• Health care availability: 4.7%
• Racial/ethnic tension 3.3%
• Expansion of parks/trails: 1.1%
• Expansion of cultural opportunities: 0.8%

“Over the past year, do you believe that Danville/Boyle County’s economy has generally…?”

• Gotten better: 37.2%
• Stayed the same: 55.5%
• Gotten worse: 7.3%

“Over the past year, do you believe that Kentucky’s economy has generally…?”

• Gotten better: 42.6%
• Stayed the same: 39.5%
• Gotten worse: 17.9%

Regarding the “recent lane reconfiguration on Danville’s main street”: 80.8% approve and 19.2% disapprove.

Regarding ranked choice voting, where voters cast their ballots by “voting for political candidates by ranking in order of preference (1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd) instead of choosing one of several options”: 46.4% approve, 53.6% disapprove.

“Do you think the following officials have performed well enough to deserve re-election, or do you think it’s time to give a new person a chance?” Proportion who said “deserves re-election” for each elected official/entity:

• Boyle County Judge Executive Howard Hunt: 60.5% (79.3% of Republicans, 38.8% of Democrats, and 48.9% of Independents)
• Boyle County Fiscal Court: 57.8% (67.1% of Republicans, 47.3% of Democrats, and 54.4% of Independents)
• Danville Mayor Mike Perros: 46.2% (53.4% of Republicans, 36.3% of Democrats, and 54.5% of Independents)
• Danville City Commission: 55.6% (54.4% of Republicans, 57.3% of Democrats, and 53.8% of Independents)

 

OPINIONS ON NATIONAL ISSUES

The following table is read going across. Example: 43% of Boyle County voters have a “very favorable” view of Donald Trump, 12.3% of a “somewhat favorable view,” etc.

“Please tell us how you feel about:”

	Very favorable	Somewhat favorable	Somewhat unfavorable	Very unfavorable
President Donald Trump	43%	12.3%	6.2%	38.5%
Senator Mitch McConnell	22.6%	24.5%	13.1%	39.9%
Senator Elizabeth Warren	13.1%	31.1%	15.1%	39.8%
Former Vice President Joe Biden	17.3%	27.8%	16.2%	38.7%
Senator Bernie Sanders	14.2%	26.5%	14.6%	44.7%

 

• Donald Trump somewhat/very favorable among: 88.3% of Republicans, 10.3% of Democrats, 64.2% of Independents.
• Senator Mitch McConnell somewhat/very favorable among: 75.2% of Republicans, 10.5% of Democrats, and 60.4% of Independents.
• Senator Elizabeth Warren somewhat/very favorable among: 17.8% of Republicans, 76.7% of Democrats, and 48.4% of Independents.
• Former Vice President Joe Biden somewhat/very favorable among: 16% of Republicans, 79.6% of Democrats, 38.9% of Independents.
• Senator Bernie Sanders somewhat/very favorable among: 11.5% of Republicans, 76% of Democrats, and 38.8% of Independents.

 

“Do you think the following officials have performed well enough to deserve re-election, or do you think it’s time to give a new person a chance?” Proportion who said “deserves re-election” for each elected official/entity:

• President Donald Trump: 52.3% (88.4% of Republicans, 7.7% of Democrats, and 49.4% of Independents)
• Senator Rand Paul: 49.9% (82% of Republicans, 11.3% of Democrats, and 54.7% of Independents)
• Senator Mitch McConnell: 41.2% (69.2% of Republicans, 6.8% of Democrats, and 50.3% of Independents)
• Congressman Brett Guthrie: 53.7% (77.9% of Republicans, 23.6% of Democrats, and 57.8% of Independents)

 

Regarding “the construction of more walls along the U.S.-Mexico border”: 49.7% approve (87.7% of Republicans approve, 8.9% of Democrats approve, 44.9% of Independents approve).

Regarding “how Robert Mueller handled the investigation into Russia’s role in the 2016 election and Donald Trump’s possible connection”: 47.7% approve (35.9% of Republicans approve, 60.2% of Democrats approve, 43.5% of Independents approve).

“What impact do you think President Trump’s actions on trade policy with China have had on Kentucky’s economy?”

• Positive impact: 37.8% (65.1% of Republicans, 6.3% of Democrats, and 50% of Independents)
• No impact: 15.7% (18.9% of Republicans, 13.4% of Democrats, and 7.2% of Independents)
• Negative impact: 46.5% (16% of Republicans, 80.2% of Democrats, 42.8% of Independents)

 

METHODOLOGY:

All figures presented here are statistically weighted by education levels and partisanship as per the 2018 CCES survey (weighted and voter-validated) results of Kentucky voters in the 2018 midterm election. This is a standard procedure in public opinion survey research to increase the representativeness of public opinion polling samples.

Demographic breakdown of survey respondents:

Do you think of yourself as a (an): 37.4% Democrat, 3.8% Independent but lean Democrat, 6.3% pure Independent, 10.3% Independent but lean Republican, 42.2% Republican (for the purposes of this report, partisan leaners are combined with partisans); 51.7% of survey respondents were female, 48.3% male; 54.4% report an income over $50K/year while 19.9% report an income under $20K/year; 26.1% report never attending religious services and 51.3% report attending once a week or more; 86.4% report white ethnicity with 9.7% reporting African-American ethnicity; 41.1% report a high school education or less, 27.1% report college level of education; 28.5% reported being under 40 years old, 45.4% reported being between 40-64 years old, 26.2% report being 65+; Evangelical Protestants make up 44.1% of the sample, with non-“born again” or other Christians 17.1%, 7.5% Catholic, 17.7% “nothing in particular,” 13.6% “other” religion.

Boyle County views on the effectiveness of the Danville-EDP partnership

The 2016 Boyle County Exit Poll asked voters the following question:

How effective is the partnership between the City of Danville and the EDP organization at promoting jobs and economic growth in the area?

In all, 9% said very effective, 50.8% somewhat effective, 13.3% somewhat not effective, 7.5% not effective and 19.4% had no opinion or did not respond.

Similar to previous analyses, I used a “multivariate regression” analysis to see what political or demographic characteristics best predict whether a voter thinks that the partnership between Danville and the EDP is effective or not at promoting jobs and economic growth. Here are the results:

Boyle County’s economy has gotten better	41.1%
Boyle County is on the right track	34.9%
Age	20.8%
Religiosity	14.9%
Income	11.3%
Gender	9.4%

(For statistics nerds, these are the minimum to max predicted probabilities of each factor in predicting an “approve” preference in a logistic regression model. Presented coefficients are statistically significant at p<0.10.)

This is telling us that, controlling for all other factors, Boyle County voters who say that the county’s economy has gotten better over this past year are 41.4% more likely to think that the Danville-EDP partnership is effective at promoting jobs and economic growth than those who think it has gotten worse. Similarly, those who say that Boyle County is “heading in the right direction” are 34.9% more likely to think that the Danville-EDP partnership is effective.

We also see that basic demographics seem to matter. Voters over 75 are 20.8% less likely to think the partnership is effective than voters under 35. Those who attend religious services more than once a week are 14.9% more likely to think the partnership is effective than those who never attend. Voters who make over $50K/year are 11.3% less likely to think the partnership is effective than those who make less than $20K/year. Finally, men are 9.4% less likely to think the partnership is effective than women.

Factors that did not matter in predicting opinions on this issue include a person’s political partisanship/ideology, level of education, and race/ethnicity. Also, whether or not a person is a Danville or county resident did not matter. Also, a voter’s approval or disapproval of the Danville City Commission or Mayor Perros did not make a difference.

In sum, views on the Danville-EDP partnership are generally good, with half of Boyle County voters saying the partnership is “somewhat effective” and another 9% saying “very effective” (and about 20% having no opinion either way.) Whether or not a Boyle County voter sees the partnership as either somewhat or very effective are tied strongly to whether the person in generally sees the county economy as improving and the community as heading in the right direction.

Boyle County preferences on repurposing the Tennessee Gas Pipeline

The 2016 Boyle County Exit Poll asked voters the following question:

Do you approve or disapprove of the proposal to repurpose the Tennessee Gas Pipeline (which runs through Boyle County) from natural to liquid gas and reversing the direction of flow to north-to-south?

Based on response patterns, I estimate that 38.2% of Boyle County voters approve and 43.7% disapprove with 18.1% having no opinion.

Similar to previous analyses, I used a “multivariate regression” analysis to see what political or demographic characteristics best predict whether a voter approves or disapproves (among those who have an opinion one way or the other). Here are the results:

Republican political partisanship	32%
Age	18.6%
Male gender	12.1%

(For statistics nerds, these are the minimum to max predicted probabilities of each factor in predicting an “approve” preference in a logistic regression model. Presented coefficients are statistically significant at p<0.05.)

This is telling us that, controlling for all other factors, being a Republican was the strongest factor in predicting whether someone approves of repurposing the gas pipeline. Republicans were 32% more likely than Democrats to say “approve.” Also, age seems to make a difference. Older voters were less likely to approve of repurposing the gas pipeline. Those over 75 were 18.6% less likely to approve than those under 35. Finally, men were 12.1% more likely than women to approve of repurposing the gas pipeline.

Factors that did not matter in predicting preferences on this issue include political ideology, income, religiosity, education, or race/ethnicity. Also, a person’s perspective on whether Boyle County is on the right or wrong track or how the Boyle economy is doing are not associated with preferences on this issue.

UPDATE 11/16/2016: it was recently brought to my attention that the question wording was not 100% accurate in describing this issue. The survey said “liquid gas” when in fact the proposal is to repurpose the pipeline for “natural gas liquids.” I appreciate the clarification being brought to my attention and regret the error.

Boyle County voting patterns for Kentucky’s 54th state house seat

The 2016 Boyle County Exit Poll asked voters who they voted for in the Kentucky 54^th state legislative race (Boyle and Casey counties) between incumbent Republican Daniel Elliot and challenger Democrat Bill Noelker. The survey also asked a variety of other questions about the voter’s political opinions and demographic characteristics. I used a “multivariate regression” analysis to see what difference these various factors made in predicting a vote for Daniel Elliot in Boyle County, controlling for the effect of every other factor. Here are the results:

Republican political partisanship	46.6%
Governor Bevin approval	39.5%
President Obama disapproval	32.9%
Kentucky rural resource distribution	31.2%
White race/ethnicity	25%
Frequent church attendance	23.8%

(For statistics nerds, these are the minimum to max predicted probabilities of each factor in predicting a vote for Elliot in a logistic regression model. Presented coefficients are statistically significant at p<0.05.)

This is telling us that, controlling for all other factors, being a Republican was the strongest factor in predicting a vote for Daniel Elliot in Boyle County: Republicans were 46.6% more likely than Democrats to do so. Approval of Governor Matt Bevin was the second-highest factor: those who approve of Governor Bevin were 39.5% more likely to vote for Elliot than those who disapprove. Similarly, those who disapprove of President Obama were 32.9% less likely to vote for Elliot than those who approve.

Interestingly, those who say that the Kentucky state government does not do a good job at distributing resources equally between Louisville/Lexington and rural parts of the state were 31.2% more likely to vote for Elliot than those who think the Kentucky state government does a very good job.

Two demographic factors also made a differences: white voters were 25% more likely to vote for Elliot than non-white voters and those who attend religious services once a week or more were 23.8% more likely to vote for Elliot than those who never attend religious services.

There are also several things that did not matter in predicting a vote for Elliot over Bevin once these other factors were controlled for. These included a voter’s gender, income, age, or level of education. It also included whether or not the voter thought Boyle County was on the right or wrong track as well as whether they thought that Boyle County’s economy had gotten better or worse over this past year.

In sum, voting patterns in the 54^th state legislative race (for Boyle County voters, at least) was mostly a function of political partisanship with some degree of concern about how Kentucky distributes resources between rural and urban parts of the state. Race and religion also played a smaller role.

2016 Boyle County Exit Poll: results by partisanship

Below are various Exit Poll responses by respondent partisanship. The first line can be interpreted: “13.5% of Democrats voted for Trump compared to 86.6% of Republicans.” All other results shown here can be interpreted similarly.

	Democrats and leaners	Pure Independents	Republicans and leaners
Donald Trump	13.5%	43.7%	86.6%
Hillary Clinton	83.1%	32.1%	5.6%
Gary Johnson	1.6%	12.1%	3.5%
Jill Stein	1.0%	5.6%	0.1%
Kentucky U.S. Senate
Rand Paul	10.5%	52.6%	85.5%
Jim Gray	89.4%	47.4%	14.5%
Kentucky 54th District
Daniel Elliot	11.3%	42.2%	83.8%
Bill Noelker	88.4%	56.8%	15.7%
Kentucky Supreme Court
Glenn Acree	36.5%	22.1%	32.4%
Larry VanMeter	63.1%	77.9%	67.6%
Approve Barack Obama	85.3%	46.2%	9.5%
Approve Senator Paul	17.7%	57.6%	77.3%
Approve Senator McConnell	11.0%	22.5%	45.8%
Approve Brett Guthrie	42.0%	59.8%	75.2%
Approve Matt Bevin	16.5%	45.6%	79.0%
Approve Harold McKinney	84.2%	80.1%	75.9%
Approve Mike Perros	80.9%	74.4%	76.4%
Approve Danville City Commission	88.2%	78.5%	75.4%
Approve Ron Scott	81.7%	74.0%	72.4%
Approve EDP	75.8%	66.0%	68.7%
Single most important problem local area  needs to solve
Crime	9.0%	10.8%	14.3%
Education	17.1%	5.2%	5.2%
Jobs	18.7%	17.0%	27.4%
Racial/ethnic tension	3.6%	4.2%	1.6%
Prescription drug abuse	31.3%	29.7%	27.7%
Economid development	9.1%	13.2%	9.6%
Roads and sidewalks	2.2%	4.2%	2.3%
High taxes	2.3%	9.0%	5.7%
Corruption	1.5%	2.4%	3.9%
Health care availability	4.9%	4.2%	2.3%
Danville/Boyle right track	87.9%	79.8%	79.5%
Danville/Boyle wrong track	12.1%	20.2%	20.5%
Pipeline repurposing approve	27.4%	50.0%	57.6%
EDP/Danville partnership is effective	85.1%	88.6%	83.9%

2016 Boyle County Exit Poll: comparison of survey vs. actual results

	Actual results	Survey results	Difference
Trump	62.1%	48.8%	13.3%
Clinton	33.1%	44.0%	10.9%
Paul	54.0%	47.1%	6.9%
Gray	46.0%	52.9%	6.9%
Elliott	57.8%	46.7%	11.1%
Noelker	42.3%	52.8%	10.5%
Acree	29.6%	33.5%	3.9%
VanMeter	70.4%	66.3%	4.1%
COUNTY VOTERS ONLY
Tamme	52.4%	58.7%	6.3%
Ellis	47.6%	41.3%	6.3%
DANVILLE VOTERS ONLY
McCowan	26.2%	26.8%	0.6%
Finke	27.0%	29.1%	2.1%
Merryman	25.9%	25.4%	0.5%
Miller	21.0%	18.8%	2.2%
Serres	19.4%	21.6%	2.2%
Caudill	21.7%	22.4%	0.7%
Terry	20.4%	20.2%	0.2%
Atkins	23.0%	24.8%	1.8%
Monroe	15.6%	11.8%	3.8%

Survey results are weighted by age, gender, and race/ethnicity. See the previous post for more context and explanation of the difference based on partisan and non-partisan offices, especially the partisan imbalance in the federal and state level offices.

2016 Boyle County Exit Poll: Preliminary Results

The 2016 Boyle County Exit Poll was administered by Dr. Benjamin Knoll of Centre College to Boyle County, Kentucky voters on November 8, 2016. Respondents were randomly selected by interviewers to participate in the survey.

Centre College students enrolled in POL 210 (Introduction to American Politics) and POL 330 (Political Parties, Campaigns, and Elections) participated in administering the exit poll surveys. Mr. Ryan New of Boyle County High School provided generous assistance in the planning and execution of the project and his AP U.S. Government students at Boyle County High School also participated in administering the exit poll surveys. We also gratefully acknowledge Candace Wentz of Centre College and Julie Taylor of Boyle County High School for their technological assistance.

Students were on-site from 6:00 AM through 6:00 PM surveying voters as they left the polling locations on Tuesday, November 8th, 2016. Due to interviewer availability, all voting locations in Boyle County were included except for the Mitchellsburg location (which does not bias the results of the survey in a substantial way given that only about 3% of all Boyle County voters typically vote at this location).

In all, 1,724 Boyle County voters (including 1,191 self-reported from Danville) participated in the exit poll. The Kentucky Secretary of State’s website reports that 13,133 individuals voted in Boyle County on Election Day. Surveys were administered in both electronic and traditional paper format. In all, 88.8% of respondents participated with the electronic devices and 11.2% opted for paper surveys.

This year’s survey had a response rate of 48.4%. (We asked a total of 3,560 people to take the survey and 1,724 of them agreed.) This is similar to response rates in previous years of 47.5% in 2015, 47.4% in 2014, and 50.5% in 2012. This is similar to other national exit poll response rates. 

It should be noted that this is an exit poll of voters only, which are 60.8% of registered voters in Boyle County. Therefore, these figures should not be interpreted as fully representative of all adults in Boyle County, but rather 2016 Election Day voters in Boyle County, Kentucky.

Figures presented here are statistically weighted by gender, race/ethnicity, and age. This is a standard method to increase the representativeness of public opinion polling samples.

It is important to note that in recent years there has developed a bias toward over-representing Democratic respondents in the Boyle County Exit Poll survey, very likely due to Republican voters being increasingly less likely to agree to take the survey than Democrats. This pattern continued in this year’s survey. We can tell this by comparing survey answers to the official results. For example, according to the Secretary of State’s office, Donald Trump won Boyle County with 62.1% of the vote compared to Hillary Clinton’s 33.1% of the vote. After applying the standard demographic weighting, the survey showed Trump winning Boyle County with 48.8% compared to 44% for Clinton. There was a similar effect for results in the 54^th Kentucky legislature race, and a smaller effect for Kentucky Senate voting patterns. However, differences between actual results and survey results for the non-partisan elections to Danville city commission and school board were much smaller, with an average difference of 1.5%. This strongly suggests that the Exit Poll is getting a representative sample of voters in terms of demographic characteristics, but under-sampling Republicans by a rate of about 12% this year. The accuracy of exit polling results relies heavily on the willingness of all groups of voters to participate in roughly equal degrees so that everyone has an equal chance of being included. To maximize the likelihood that this happens, we instruct our students to ask every third person to take the survey, thereby seeking to ensure randomization in sampling. It appears, however, that Boyle County Republicans are simply more likely to say “no” than are Democrats when approached by our students and asked to participate. Given the results of yesterday’s presidential election, it seems that this is a systematic problem throughout the entire country and is not isolated merely to Boyle County voters, as there is strong evidence that Trump voters were systematically less willing to participate in pre-election polling than Clinton voters.

Given this reality, I performed an additional calculation to attempt to estimate the likely survey result assuming that Republicans had been as likely to participate as Democrats. In other words, I took my “best guess” as to what the results would have been if Republicans were more evenly represented in the survey. Full details of this process are explained below.[FN1] In the interest of transparency, I present both the actual results and adjusted estimate of the results for these questions if the difference is more than 3%. I’ll leave it readers to determine which is a more accurate representation of opinions of Boyle County voters. Personally, I am inclined to accept the adjusted figures (presented in parentheses) as more accurate given the factors described above, but they should be interpreted as an estimation only. 

With that said, I present the “first pass” results of the survey. Throughout the week I anticipate posting more in-depth analyses of the survey results. Check back in the next few days for more.

 

ALL BOYLE COUNTY VOTERS

Generally speaking, do you believe Danville/Boyle County is heading in the right direction or heading off on the wrong track?

• 78.9% heading in the right direction, 15.8% off on the wrong track, 5.3% don’t know/no opinion

What is the single most important problem that our local area (Boyle County/Danville) needs to solve?

• 28.1% Prescription drug abuse
• 21.4% Jobs
• 11.0% Crime
• 10.4% Education
• 9.3% Economic development
• 4.1% DK/no opinion

Over the past year do you believe that Danville/Boyle County’s economy has generally…?

• 32.5% gotten better, 42.9% stayed the same, 12.1% gotten worse, 12.5% DK/no opinion

Do you approve or disapprove of the proposal to repurpose the Tennessee Gas Pipeline (which runs through Boyle County) from natural to liquid gas and reversing the direction of flow to north-to-south?

• 34.8% approve, 47.1% disapprove, 18.1% DK/no opinion (Adjusted estimate: 38.2% approve, 43.7% disapprove)

How effective is the partnership between the City of Danville and the EDP organization at promoting jobs and economic growth in the area?

• 9% very effective, 50.8% somewhat effective, 13.3% somewhat not effective, 7.5% not effective, 19.4% DK/no opinion

How enthusiastic are you about the candidate you voted for President?

• AMONG TRUMP VOTERS: 47.6% very enthusiastic, 27.3% somewhat enthusiastic, 16.9% not very enthusiastic, 8.2% not at all enthusiastic
• AMONG CLINTON VOTERS: 48.4% very enthusiastic, 34.4% somewhat enthusiastic, 10.8% not very enthusiastic, 6.5% not at all enthusiastic

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the following political leaders or community groups are handling their job?

• President Obama: 46.7% approve, 50.6% disapprove, 2.7% DK/no opinion (Adjusted estimate: 35.4% approve, 61.2% disapprove)
• Senator Rand Paul: 43.4% approve, 47.8% disapprove, 8.8% DK/no opinion (Adjusted estimate: 52.1% approve, 39.1% disapprove)
• Senator McConnell: 24.3% approve, 67.2% disapprove, 8.5% DK/no opinion (Adjusted estimate: 29.5% approve, 62% disapprove)
• Congressman Brett Guthrie: 39.3% approve, 28% disapprove, 32.7% DK/no opinion (Adjusted estimate: 43.3% approve, 24% disapprove)
• Governor Matt Bevin: 41.1% approve, 46.5% disapprove, 12.4% DK/no opinion (Adjusted estimate: 50.4% approve, 37.2% disapprove)
• Judge Harold McKinney: 61.1% approve, 15.5% disapprove, 23.5% DK/no opinion
• Danville/Boyle EDP organization: 45.2% approve, 18% disapprove, 36.8% DK/no opinion

 

DANVILLE VOTERS ONLY

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the following political leaders or community groups are handling their job?

• Danville Mayor Mike Perros: 61.2% approve, 17.4% disapprove, 21.5% DK/no opinion
• Danville City Commission: 63% approve, 12.6% disapprove, 24.4% DK/no opinion
• Danville City Manager Ron Scott: 54.2% approve, 16.3% disapprove, 29.4% DK/no opinion

Do you approve or disapprove of Danville City Commission’s handling of the following issues:

• Fostering economic growth: 63.6% approve, 21.6% disapprove, 14.8% DK/no opinion
• Fostering a good quality of life for residents: 70.6% approve, 14.9% disapprove, 14.5% DK/no opinion
• Management of the city budget: 55.5% approve, 25.1% disapprove, 19.4% DK/no opinion
• Management of the water plant project: 61.7% approve, 20% disapprove, 18.2% DK/no opinion
• Management of the Weisiger Park renovations: 53.6% approve, 27.6% disapprove, 18.9% DK/no opinion

 

DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION OF ALL SURVEY RESPONDENTS:

Do you consider yourself: 25.5% liberal, 35.8% moderate, 35.6% conservative, 3.2% DK/no opinion

Do you think of yourself as a (an): 35.6% Democrat, 10.8% Independent lean Democrat, 6.5% Independent, 12.6% Independent lean Republican, 31% Republican, 3.5% DK/no opinion (Adjusted estimate: 34.3% Democrat or Independent-lean-Democrat, 55.7% Republican or Independent-lean-Republican)

Additionally, 53.6% of survey respondents were female, 46.4% male; 67.3% report an income over $50K/year while 13.7% report an income under $20K/year; 8.8% report never attending church and 29.5% report attending once a week or more; 88.1% report white ethnicity with 9.5% reporting African-American ethnicity; 35.5% report a high school education or less, 35.7% report college level of education, and 27.9% report a post-graduate level of education. 22% reported being under 35 years old, 35.2% reported being between 35-55 years old, 35.8% reported being between 55-75 years old, with 7% report being older than 75. Evangelical Protestants make up 44.4% of the sample, with 16.8% Mainline Protestants, 9.5% Catholic, 7% “nothing in particular,” 7.1% atheist/agnostic, 5.7% “other” religion.

 

[FN1] This is how I calculated the adjustment estimate based on partisan sampling differences: I took the two races with the most and least degree of partisan voting patterns: U.S. president and Danville School Board. The partisan correlation was 0.662 and the school board correlation was 0.09 (at most). This represents an upper and lower range to estimate partisan bias in other questions. I then calculated the correlation between partisanship and each other question. I subtracted 0.09 (the lower boundary correlation) from the correlation and then divided this by the upper boundary (0.662) and then multiplied that by the degree of partisan bias in the upper-boundary turnout figures (12.1% for U.S. presidency). I then either added or subtracted that amount based on the direction of the partisan correlation in the response question. For those questions in which the difference is greater than 3%, the new figure is presented as the “adjusted estimate” figure in parenthesis.

 

Update on 2016 Boyle County Exit Poll results

For interested parties: the data from this year’s exit polling project has been collected and compiled. I hope to be able finish the analysis and post the preliminary results sometime tomorrow (Wednesday). Thank you all for your patience!