2019 Boyle County Exit Poll: Topline Results

A PDF version of this report is available here.

The 2019 Boyle County Exit Poll (BCEP) was administered by Dr. Benjamin Knoll, Dr. Ryan Lloyd, and Dr. Jaclyn Johnson of Centre College in Boyle County, Kentucky on November 5, 2019. This 2019 BCEP is part of a wider series of surveys administered around Kentucky on Election by researchers at the University of Kentucky, Morehead State University, Campbellsville University, and the University of Cincinnati.

Approximately 75 Centre College students were on-site from 6:00 AM through 6:00 PM surveying voters as they left the polling locations. Respondents were randomly selected by interviewers to participate in the survey. In all, 1,832 Boyle County voters participated in the exit poll. For comparison, the Kentucky Secretary of State’s website reports that 10,400 individuals voted in Boyle County on Election Day, meaning that this survey contains the views of approximately 1 out of every 6 voters in Boyle County.

This year’s survey had a response rate of 55.1%. (We asked a total of 3,325 people to take the survey and 1,832 of them agreed.) This is slightly higher than the response rates that were achieved in previous Boyle County Exit Poll years of 48.4% in 2016, 47.5% in 2015, 47.4% in 2014, and 50.5% in 2012. (This is similar to other national exit poll response rates.)

It should be noted that this is an exit poll of voters only and therefore these figures should not be interpreted as fully representative of all adults in Boyle County, but rather of 2019 Election Day voters in Boyle County, Kentucky. The margin of error for the full sample is ±2% and approximately ±3.5% for subsamples.

We gratefully acknowledge the assistance of Michele Margolis, Dan Hopkins, and David Azizi at the University of Pennsylvania for their valuable assistance in preparing and processing the survey results. All errors are our own.

 

VOTING FOR GOVERNOR IN BOYLE COUNTY: DEMOGRAPHICS

The following tables are read going across. Example: 54.6% of men voted for Bevin compared to 42.6% who voted for Beshear, while 42.7% of women voted for Bevin compared to 56% who voted for Beshear.

Figures due not round to 100% due to a small number of write-in candidates for each office.

  MATT BEVIN (R) ANDY BESHEAR (D) JOHN HICKS (L)
Male 54.6% 42.6% 2.9%
Female 42.7% 56% 1.2%
White 51.9% 45.8% 2.2%
Black 15.9% 84.2% 0%
Other race/ethnicity 41.3% 58.7% 0%
Income over $50K/year 47.3% 50.6% 2%
Income $20K-$50K/year 52.2% 44.1% 2.8%
Income uncer $20K/year 43.2% 53.8% 3%
High school or less 53.8% 41.2% 4.3%
Some college 47.9% 51.3% 0.7%
College degree 38.2% 49.6% 2.4%
Age under 40 36% 60% 4%
Age 40-64 61.6% 46.3% 2.1%
Age over 65 53.8% 45.6% 0.6%
Attend religious services weekly or more 57.8% 40.5% 1.7%
Attend religious services sometimes 45.9% 51.4% 1.6%
Attend religious services never 29.5% 66% 4.6%
Consider yourself an Evangelical or ‘born-again’ Christian? 60.8% 37.9% 1.3%
Do NOT consider yourself an Evangelical or ‘born-again’ Christian 30.4% 65.8% 3.8%

 

VOTING FOR GOVERNOR IN BOYLE COUNTY: KENTUCKY ECONOMY

  MATT BEVIN (R) ANDY BESHEAR (D) JOHN HICKS (L)
Kentucky’s economy has gotten better recently 79.9% 16.3% 3.7%
Kentucky’s economy has gotten worse lately 5.8% 92.8% 1.4%
Kentucky’s economy has stayed the same recently 24.3% 74% 1.6%
Trump’s trade war with China has had a positive impact on Kentucky’s economy 85.2% 12.7% 2.2%
Trump’s trade war with China has had a negative impact on Kentucky’s economy 11.4% 85.5% 3.1%
Trump’s trade war with China has had no impact on Kentucky’s economy 49.7% 48.5% 1.4%

 

VOTING FOR GOVERNOR IN BOYLE COUNTY: PARTISANSHIP AND POLITICAL VIEWS

  MATT BEVIN (R) ANDY BESHEAR (D) JOHN HICKS (L)
Republicans 81.8% 15.3% 2.3%
Democrats 5.4% 93.6% 1.1%
Independents 42.4% 45.44% 12.3%
Favorable view of Donald Trump 82.1% 15.9% 2%
Unfavorable view of Donald Trump 7.2% 89.7% 3.2%
Voted for Cameron (R) for Attorney General 80.8% 15.6% 3.7%
Voted for Stumbo (D) for Attorney General 6.2% 92.8% 1%
Voted for Adams (R) for Sec of State 83.5% 12.6% 3.4%
Voted for Henry (D) for Attorney General 9.1% 89.4% 1.4%

 

COMPARISON OF VOTING FOR OTHER STATE-WIDE OFFICES IN BOYLE COUNTY:

KY GOVERNOR MATT BEVIN (R) ANDY BESHEAR (D) JOHN HICKS (L)
Republicans 81.8% 15.3% 2.3%
Democrats 5.4% 93.6% 1.1%
Independents 42.4% 45.44% 12.3%

 

KY ATTORNEY GENERAL DANIEL CAMERON (R) GREGORY STUMBO (D)
Republicans 92.2% 7%
Democrats 9.1% 90.3%
Independents 64.1% 35.6%

 

KY SEC OF STATE MICHAEL ADAMS (R) HEATHER FRENCH HENRY (D)
Republicans 88.7% 11.3%
Democrats 4% 95.4%
Independents 49.7% 45.2%

 

 

OPINIONS ON LOCAL ISSUES

“What is the single most important problem our local area needs to solve? (check only one)”

  • Prescription drug abuse: 21.5%
  • Crime 17.8%
  • Education 15.7%
  • Job creation 10.8%
  • Roads and sidewalks: 10.3%
  • Economic development: 7.1%
  • High taxes: 7%
  • Health care availability: 4.7%
  • Racial/ethnic tension 3.3%
  • Expansion of parks/trails: 1.1%
  • Expansion of cultural opportunities: 0.8%

“Over the past year, do you believe that Danville/Boyle County’s economy has generally…?”

  • Gotten better: 37.2%
  • Stayed the same: 55.5%
  • Gotten worse: 7.3%

“Over the past year, do you believe that Kentucky’s economy has generally…?”

  • Gotten better: 42.6%
  • Stayed the same: 39.5%
  • Gotten worse: 17.9%

Regarding the “recent lane reconfiguration on Danville’s main street”: 80.8% approve and 19.2% disapprove.

Regarding ranked choice voting, where voters cast their ballots by “voting for political candidates by ranking in order of preference (1st, 2nd, 3rd) instead of choosing one of several options”: 46.4% approve, 53.6% disapprove.

“Do you think the following officials have performed well enough to deserve re-election, or do you think it’s time to give a new person a chance?” Proportion who said “deserves re-election” for each elected official/entity:

  • Boyle County Judge Executive Howard Hunt: 60.5% (79.3% of Republicans, 38.8% of Democrats, and 48.9% of Independents)
  • Boyle County Fiscal Court: 57.8% (67.1% of Republicans, 47.3% of Democrats, and 54.4% of Independents)
  • Danville Mayor Mike Perros: 46.2% (53.4% of Republicans, 36.3% of Democrats, and 54.5% of Independents)
  • Danville City Commission: 55.6% (54.4% of Republicans, 57.3% of Democrats, and 53.8% of Independents)

 

OPINIONS ON NATIONAL ISSUES

The following table is read going across. Example: 43% of Boyle County voters have a “very favorable” view of Donald Trump, 12.3% of a “somewhat favorable view,” etc.

“Please tell us how you feel about:”

Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable
President Donald Trump 43% 12.3% 6.2% 38.5%
Senator Mitch McConnell 22.6% 24.5% 13.1% 39.9%
Senator Elizabeth Warren 13.1% 31.1% 15.1% 39.8%
Former Vice President Joe Biden 17.3% 27.8% 16.2% 38.7%
Senator Bernie Sanders 14.2% 26.5% 14.6% 44.7%

 

  • Donald Trump somewhat/very favorable among: 88.3% of Republicans, 10.3% of Democrats, 64.2% of Independents.
  • Senator Mitch McConnell somewhat/very favorable among: 75.2% of Republicans, 10.5% of Democrats, and 60.4% of Independents.
  • Senator Elizabeth Warren somewhat/very favorable among: 17.8% of Republicans, 76.7% of Democrats, and 48.4% of Independents.
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden somewhat/very favorable among: 16% of Republicans, 79.6% of Democrats, 38.9% of Independents.
  • Senator Bernie Sanders somewhat/very favorable among: 11.5% of Republicans, 76% of Democrats, and 38.8% of Independents.

 

“Do you think the following officials have performed well enough to deserve re-election, or do you think it’s time to give a new person a chance?” Proportion who said “deserves re-election” for each elected official/entity:

  • President Donald Trump: 52.3% (88.4% of Republicans, 7.7% of Democrats, and 49.4% of Independents)
  • Senator Rand Paul: 49.9% (82% of Republicans, 11.3% of Democrats, and 54.7% of Independents)
  • Senator Mitch McConnell: 41.2% (69.2% of Republicans, 6.8% of Democrats, and 50.3% of Independents)
  • Congressman Brett Guthrie: 53.7% (77.9% of Republicans, 23.6% of Democrats, and 57.8% of Independents)

 

Regarding “the construction of more walls along the U.S.-Mexico border”: 49.7% approve (87.7% of Republicans approve, 8.9% of Democrats approve, 44.9% of Independents approve).

Regarding “how Robert Mueller handled the investigation into Russia’s role in the 2016 election and Donald Trump’s possible connection”: 47.7% approve (35.9% of Republicans approve, 60.2% of Democrats approve, 43.5% of Independents approve).

“What impact do you think President Trump’s actions on trade policy with China have had on Kentucky’s economy?”

  • Positive impact: 37.8% (65.1% of Republicans, 6.3% of Democrats, and 50% of Independents)
  • No impact: 15.7% (18.9% of Republicans, 13.4% of Democrats, and 7.2% of Independents)
  • Negative impact: 46.5% (16% of Republicans, 80.2% of Democrats, 42.8% of Independents)

 

METHODOLOGY:

All figures presented here are statistically weighted by education levels and partisanship as per the 2018 CCES survey (weighted and voter-validated) results of Kentucky voters in the 2018 midterm election. This is a standard procedure in public opinion survey research to increase the representativeness of public opinion polling samples.

Demographic breakdown of survey respondents:

Do you think of yourself as a (an): 37.4% Democrat, 3.8% Independent but lean Democrat, 6.3% pure Independent, 10.3% Independent but lean Republican, 42.2% Republican (for the purposes of this report, partisan leaners are combined with partisans); 51.7% of survey respondents were female, 48.3% male; 54.4% report an income over $50K/year while 19.9% report an income under $20K/year; 26.1% report never attending religious services and 51.3% report attending once a week or more; 86.4% report white ethnicity with 9.7% reporting African-American ethnicity; 41.1% report a high school education or less, 27.1% report college level of education; 28.5% reported being under 40 years old, 45.4% reported being between 40-64 years old, 26.2% report being 65+; Evangelical Protestants make up 44.1% of the sample, with non-“born again” or other Christians 17.1%, 7.5% Catholic, 17.7% “nothing in particular,” 13.6% “other” religion.

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