2016 Colonel’s Canvass Poll: polling results vs. voting results

The 2016 Colonel’s Canvass Poll, conducted October 18-23, showed Hillary Clinton with the support of 44.9% of likely voters and Donald Trump with 40% of likely voters, with a 4.1% margin of error.

That means that there was a 95% chance that Hillary Clinton’s level of support was anywhere from 40.8% and 49% and Donald Trump’s level of support was anywhere from 35.9% to 44.1%.

As of 12/9/2016, Hillary Clinton had won the popular vote with 48.04% compared to Donald Trump’s 46.08%. Our polling estimate for Clinton support was therefore off by 3.14% and our estimate for Trump was off by 6.08%.

It is important to note, though, that our poll was conducted three weeks before the election. It also showed Johnson with 6% support, “someone else” with 2.7%, and “don’t know” with 5.4%. As usually happens before elections, support for the third-party options decreased and support for the two-party candidates increased.

In sum, there is little evidence that our poll was “way off” or incorrect. Our poll correctly predicted Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote. Like most other national polls, we slightly over-estimated Clinton’s level of support and moderately under-estimated Trump’s level of support. In the end, however, our poll showed Clinton winning by 5% whereas she is currently winning the popular vote by about 2% in the final tabulation. A 3% difference is within the traditionally-accepted margins of standard polling error.

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