The 2016 Boyle County Exit Poll asked voters the following question:
Do you approve or disapprove of the proposal to repurpose the Tennessee Gas Pipeline (which runs through Boyle County) from natural to liquid gas and reversing the direction of flow to north-to-south?
Based on response patterns, I estimate that 38.2% of Boyle County voters approve and 43.7% disapprove with 18.1% having no opinion.
Similar to previous analyses, I used a “multivariate regression” analysis to see what political or demographic characteristics best predict whether a voter approves or disapproves (among those who have an opinion one way or the other). Here are the results:
|Republican political partisanship||32%|
(For statistics nerds, these are the minimum to max predicted probabilities of each factor in predicting an “approve” preference in a logistic regression model. Presented coefficients are statistically significant at p<0.05.)
This is telling us that, controlling for all other factors, being a Republican was the strongest factor in predicting whether someone approves of repurposing the gas pipeline. Republicans were 32% more likely than Democrats to say “approve.” Also, age seems to make a difference. Older voters were less likely to approve of repurposing the gas pipeline. Those over 75 were 18.6% less likely to approve than those under 35. Finally, men were 12.1% more likely than women to approve of repurposing the gas pipeline.
Factors that did not matter in predicting preferences on this issue include political ideology, income, religiosity, education, or race/ethnicity. Also, a person’s perspective on whether Boyle County is on the right or wrong track or how the Boyle economy is doing are not associated with preferences on this issue.
UPDATE 11/16/2016: it was recently brought to my attention that the question wording was not 100% accurate in describing this issue. The survey said “liquid gas” when in fact the proposal is to repurpose the pipeline for “natural gas liquids.” I appreciate the clarification being brought to my attention and regret the error.