One of my big questions this year is to what extent this will be a “normal” election in the sense that it follows the same basic patterns of previous elections.
Normally Democrats and Republicans who didn’t support their party’s nominee in the primary grumble for a few weeks or months but then eventually fall in line and support their party’s candidate because of the incredibly strong pull that partisanship exerts on presidential vote choice. I was curious to see if that same pattern would hold this year or not, especially given the #nevertrump activity and the strong loyalty in the Bernie Sanders crowd.
This article from FiveThirtyEight reports:
“In the last four live interview polls that broke down results by partisanship, Trump averaged 85 percent support against Hillary Clinton among respondents who identified as Republicans. Clinton won just 7 percent among GOP respondents. Trump’s share of the Republican vote at this point in the campaign is right in line with past nominees.”
This suggests that, so far at least, voting behavior is conforming to “normal” patterns for presidential elections. Most Republicans are falling in line behind Trump quickly and without much fuss, it seems.
We are still five months out, though. It will be interesting to see what other patterns hold or not this election cycle.