2015 Boyle County Exit Poll: Preliminary Results

The 2015 Boyle County Exit Poll was administered by Dr. Benjamin Knoll of Centre College to Boyle County, Kentucky voters on November 3, 2015. Respondents were randomly selected by interviewers to participate in the survey. Centre College students enrolled in POL 120 (Introduction to Political Ideologies), POL 205 (Introduction to Political Analysis), POL 210 (Introduction to American Politics), and POL 404 (Advanced Special Research Topics) courses participated in designing and administering the exit poll surveys.

Students were on-site from 6:00 AM through 6:00 PM surveying voters as they left the polling locations on Tuesday, November 3rd, 2015. Due to interviewer availability, all voting locations in Boyle County were included except for the Mitchellsburg and Parksville voting locations. (Excluding these two voting locations does not bias the results of the survey in a substantial way, however, given that only about 8% of all Boyle County voters typically vote at these two locations. An analysis of voting patterns for gubernatorial candidates Republican Matt Bevin and Democrat Jack Conway in those precincts compared to the entire county suggests that excluding Mitchellsburg and Parksville likely biases the results in a slightly Democratic direction, no more than approximately 1% total for the county-wide results.)

In all, 1,155 Boyle County voters (including 841 self-reported from Danville) participated in the exit poll. The Kentucky Secretary of State’s website reports that 7,293 individuals voted in Boyle County on Election Day. The following statistics therefore have a margin of error of ±2.7% for questions given to all Boyle County voters (again, except for those who voted at the Mitchellsburg and Parksville locations) and approximately ±3.1% for questions presented among the Danville subsample.

It should be noted that this is an exit poll of voters only, and in this election only about 35% of registered voters in Boyle County voted. Therefore, these figures should not be interpreted as fully representative of all adults in Boyle County, but rather less than half of all adults, specifically those who showed up to vote in a low-turnout state election (and therefore likely also “regular” and consistent voters). Given the sample size, however, these figures should be considered representative of Boyle County adults who voted on Election Day in 2015.

Figures presented here are also statistically weighted by gender, race, and age.

Also, this information represents the “first pass” at presenting the aggregated data results. More in-depth analysis will be posted on this website in coming days and weeks.

ALL BOYLE COUNTY VOTERS

Generally speaking, do you believe Danville/Boyle County is heading in the right direction or heading off on the wrong track?

  • 75.6% heading in the right direction, 17.4% off on the wrong track, 7% don’t know/no opinion

What is the single most important problem that our local area (Boyle County/Danville) needs to solve?

  • 17.8% Jobs
  • 16.8% Prescription drug abuse
  • 12.8% Economic development
  • 12.8% Education
  • 12.7% Crime
  • 16.5% Other issues
  • 10.6% DK/no opinion

What do you consider to be our community’s most important economic development priorities? Please indicate your top three priorities: (Results indicate % of respondents who indicated the issue as one of their top three priorities; because respondents could choose more than 1 option results do not add up to 100%.)

  • 36.6% Industrial recruitment/expansion
  • 35.2% “Smart growth” (land use planning to avoid urban sprawl and promote walkable urban areas)
  • 34.2% Small independent businesses/entrepreneurs
  • 29% New retail/restaurant options
  • 24.7% Wage/income growth
  • 22.4% Downtown business recruitment/growth
  • 22.1% Workforce training/education
  • 18.1% Parks/recreation/trails
  • 12.9% Historic preservation
  • 12.9% Health care services
  • 8.9% Tourism
  • 4.8% Retiree attraction/relocation

Over the past year do you believe that Kentucky’s economy has generally…?

  • 26.6% gotten better, 44.5% stayed the same, 25.6% gotten worse, 3.3% DK/no opinion

Generally speaking, do you agree or disagree with the following:

  • Rowan County clerk Kim Davis’s recent refusal to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples: 32.6% agree, 64.1% disagree, 3.2% DK/no opinion
  • Raising Kentucky’s minimum wage to $10.10/hour: 64.3% agree, 33.1% disagree, 2.6% DK/no opinion
  • Random drug tests for those receiving public assistance in Kentucky: 72.3% agree, 25.3% disagree, 2.4% DK/no opinion
  • Environmental Protection Agency’s regulation of the coal industry: 56.2% agree, 39.2% disagree, 4.6% DK/no opinion
  • Governor Beshear’s decision to expand Medicaid for low-income Kentuckians: 61.9% agree, 32.9% disagree, 5.2% DK/no opinion
  • Governor Beshear’s decision to sponsor the KYNECT health insurance exchange: 55.2% agree, 36.7% disagree, 8.1% DK/no opinion

Would you support or oppose allowing teachers and local school officials who volunteer to carry guns while in school?

  • 44.9% support, 50.3% oppose, 4.6% DK/no opinion

Do you approve of the way that the following political leaders are handling their job?

  • President Obama: 40.2% approve, 57.2% disapprove, 2.6% DK/no opinion
  • Senator McConnell: 30.2% approve, 63.8% disapprove, 6% DK/no opinion
  • Senator Rand Paul: 39.9% approve, 52.5% disapprove, 7.6% DK/no opinion
  • Congressman Brett Guthrie: 36.5% approve, 33.3% disapprove, 30.1% DK/no opinion
  • Governor Steve Beshear: 53.7% approve, 36.1% disapprove, 10.2% DK/no opinion
  • County Judge-Executive Harold McKinney: 64% approve, 18.8% disapprove, 17.2% DK/no opinion
  • Danville/Boyle EDP organization: 43.8% approve, 26.4% disapprove, 29.8% DK/no opinion
    • Note that the Boyle/Danville EDP is a 501(c)(3) organization and is not an elected partisan or governmental organization.

DANVILLE VOTERS ONLY

Do you approve of the way that the following political leaders are handling their job?

  • Danville Mayor Mike Perros: 62.3% approve, 21.1% disapprove, 16.6% DK/no opinion
  • Danville City Commission: 60.9% approve, 22.1% disapprove, 17.1% DK/no opinion
  • Danville City Manager Ron Scott: 55.5% approve, 21.4% disapprove, 23.1% DK/no opinion
    • Note that the Danville City Manager is a non-partisan position appointed by the City Commission and is not an elected position.

Do you approve or disapprove of Danville City Commission’s handling of the following issues:

  • Fostering economic growth: 59.8% approve, 25.2% disapprove, 15% DK/no opinion
  • Fostering a good quality of life for residents: 74.3% approve, 12.2% disapprove, 13.5% DK/no opinion
  • Management of the city budget: 52.1% approve, 29% disapprove, 18.9% DK/no opinion
  • Management of the water plant project: 66.1% approve, 16.6% disapprove, 17.3% DK/no opinion
  • Management of the Weisiger Park renovations: 45.9% approve, 34.2% disapprove, 19.9% DK/no opinion

Earlier this year, Danville increased payroll, property, and motor vehicle taxes in order to offset the effects of the recent recession and inflation on the city’s budget. On this budget decision, do you:

  • 15.8% strongly approve, 41.2% somewhat approve, 18.4% somewhat disapprove, 20% strongly disapprove, 4.6% DK/no opinion (57% strongly/somewhat approve, 38.4% strongly/somewhat disapprove)

DEMOCRAPHIC INFORMATION OF ALL SURVEY RESPONDENTS

Do you consider yourself: 23.1% liberal, 35.8% moderate, 37.4% conservative, 3.7% DK/no opinion

Do you think of yourself as a (an): 36.1% Democrat, 9.6% Independent lean Democrat, 5.7% Independent, 12.1% Independent lean Republican, 32.1% Republican, 2% DK/no opinion

Have you lived in Boyle County: 13.7% 5 years or less, 20.9% 5-15 years, 18.4% 15-25 years, 44.2% more than 25 years, 2.8% DK/no opinion

Additionally, 51.6% of survey respondents were female, 48.4% male; 66.9% report an income over $50K/year while 11.1% report an income under $20K/year; 10.2% report never attending church and 40.7% report attending once a week or more; 10.2% report being a “Tea Party supporter”; 92.6% report white ethnicity with 5.8% reporting African-American ethnicity; 28.5% report a high school education or less, 36.4% report college level of education, and 33.4% report a post-graduate level of education. 14% reported being under 35 years old, 34.8% reported being between 35-55 years old, 38.8% reported being between 55-75 years old, with 12.4% report being older than 75. Evangelical Protestants make up 43.3% of the sample, with 26.3% Mainline Protestants, 10.5% Catholic, 6.5% “nothing in particular,” 6.3% atheist/agnostic, 5.2% “other” religion.

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3 responses to “2015 Boyle County Exit Poll: Preliminary Results

  1. Did you not ask who they voted for???

  2. Why would you not ask (or reveal) who they voted for???

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