Comments on July’s Bluegrass Poll on the Kentucky Gubernatorial Race

Here are the cross-tabulation results between partisanship and support for the three-way Kentucky gubernatorial election between Matt Bevin (R), Jack Conway (D), and Drew Curtis (I) as per late July’s Bluegrass Poll. This shows results among likely voters only with a margin of error of 3.8%.

  Matt Bevin (R) Jack Conway (D) Drew Curtis (I) Undecided Composition of Likely Voters
Strong Republican 90% 5% 4% 2% 15%

Republican

71% 11% 5% 12% 12%
Independent-lean-Republican 54% 11% 12% 23% 16%

Pure Independent

34% 27% 20% 18% 11%
Independent-lean-Democrat 15% 62% 12% 11% 14%
Democrat 7% 78% 4% 11% 18%
Strong Democrat 1% 94% 2% 3% 14%

ALL

38% 43% 8% 11% 100%

There are a couple of interesting patterns here:

  • It is noteworthy that Conway’s support among Democrats is higher than Bevin’s support among Republicans. Conway is also drawing slightly more support from Republicans than Bevin is from Democrats.
  • The nearly 4% margin of error means that Bevin’s support could be anywhere from 34%-42% and Conway’s support could be anywhere from 39%-47%. So this is essentially a “statistical tie.” That being said, the small but consistent lead that Conway has enjoyed all year should make us more confident in the reality of Conway’s small lead in public support among likely voters.
  • It is noteworthy that the Republican-leaning-Independents are more undecided than the Democratic-leaning-Independents. This again speaks to Matt Bevin’s weakness with those who would otherwise be inclined to vote for a Republican candidate.
  • That being said, Conway should not be pleased that he is not drawing more support from the Democratic-leaning-Independents.
  • It’s interesting that Drew Curtis is drawing roughly equal support form both Republicans as well as Democrats.

At this point in time I’d say that there is weak-to-moderate evidence that Jack Conway enjoys a small but steady lead over Matt Bevin among likely Kentucky voters. Given that campaign events tend to make a bigger difference in state and local elections (as compared to presidential elections), there is still potential for either candidate to potentially pull into a more confident lead as the campaign heats up this fall.

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