Here is a comparison of the 2014 BCEP results for various races and the actual results from the Kentucky Secretary of State‘s website:
| Race | Actual results | Survey results | Difference | Survey results with sample weighting | Difference |
| McConnell | 56.5% | 50.2% | 6.3% | 51.8% | 4.7% |
| Grimes | 40.5% | 47.3% | 6.8% | 46.1% | 5.6% |
| Patterson | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Guthrie | 62.5% | 58.4% | 4.1% | 59.2% | 3.3% |
| Leach | 37.5% | 41.4% | 3.9% | 40.6% | 3.1% |
| McKinney | 55.0% | 59.9% | 4.9% | 61.4% | 6.4% |
| Harmon | 45.0% | 40.1% | 4.9% | 38.6% | 6.4% |
| Mike Perros | 51.0% | 43.8% | 7.2% | 45.4% | 5.6% |
| Paige Stevens | 49.0% | 56.2% | 7.2% | 54.6% | 5.6% |
| Steve Becker | 20.3% | 18.8% | 1.5% | 19.6% | 0.7% |
| Lowery Anderson | 15.9% | 17.7% | 1.8% | 18.4% | 2.5% |
| Susan Matherly | 25.7% | 24.4% | 1.3% | 23.8% | 1.9% |
| Paige Matthews | 23.6% | 24.7% | 1.1% | 23.9% | 0.3% |
| Elaine Wilson-Reddy | 14.6% | 14.4% | 0.2% | 14.3% | 0.3% |
| Rick Serres | 17.0% | 17.7% | 0.7% | 17.7% | 0.7% |
| Denise Terry | 17.1% | 15.9% | 1.2% | 15.5% | 1.6% |
| Kevin Caudill | 20.1% | 20.4% | 0.3% | 20.7% | 0.6% |
| Kent Mann | 13.2% | 12.3% | 1.0% | 12.3% | 1.0% |
| J. H. Atkins | 19.8% | 20.4% | 0.6% | 19.7% | 0.1% |
| Buck Graham | 12.3% | 13.4% | 1.1% | 14.2% | 1.9% |
| AVERAGE DIFFERENCE | 2.8% | 2.7% |
A reminder that a sample weighting was applied to figures reported on this blog, which is a standard procedure used to correct for differences in how different demographic groups respond to the initial invitation to take the survey.
In general, it seems that the exit poll sample tended to overstate support for Democratic candidates in the partisan races as well as the implicitly liberal-leaning candidate in the non-partisan Danville mayoral election by anywhere from 3%-6%.[1] When it comes to the Danville city commission and school board, however, the exit poll sample was only about 1% off from the actual final results. The average difference between the exit poll sample and the actual sample for all races is 2.8% which is reduced slightly to 2.7% once a sample weighting procedure is applied.
Given that the results vary by about an average of 2.5%-3%, we can confidently assume that the other responses from the survey questions are likely somewhere in the same ballpark. This range is well within the standard accepted margin of error of 3% for most national surveys and professional polling firms.
[FN1] There are a number of explanations that can account for this, including the possibility that people were slightly less likely to accurately report their voting patterns for these higher-profile offices on the survey form. However, it is ultimately impossible to definitely verify this one way or the other.
Information Knoll 