2014 Boyle County Exit Poll: Preliminary Results

The 2014 Boyle County Exit Poll was jointly administered by Benjamin Knoll of Centre College and Ryan New of Boyle County High School. The survey sample consisted of Boyle County voters on November 4, 2014. Respondents were randomly selected by interviewers to participate in the survey. Centre College students enrolled in Professor Benjamin Knoll’s POL 205 (Introduction to Political Analysis), POL 210 (Introduction to American Politics), and POL 330 (Parties, Campaigns, and Elections) courses participated in designing and administering the exit poll surveys. They were joined by students from Boyle County High School’s AP U.S. Government course in administering the surveys.

Students were on-site from 6:00 AM through 6:00 PM surveying voters as they left the polling locations on Tuesday, November 4th, 2014. In all, 1,684 Boyle County voters (including 1,141 self-reported from Danville) participated in the exit poll. The Kentucky Secretary of State’s website reports that 9,720 individuals voted in Boyle County on Election Day. The following statistics therefore have a margin of error of ±2.2% for questions given to all Boyle County voters.

It should be noted that this is an exit poll of voters only. In this election, only about 42% of all adults in Boyle County voted. Therefore, these figures should not be interpreted as fully representative of all adults in Boyle County, but rather less than half of all adults. Given the sample size, however, these figures should be considered representative of all adults who voted on Election Day in 2014.

Figures presented here are also statistically weighted by gender, race, and age.

ALL BOYLE COUNTY VOTERS

Generally speaking, do you believe Danville/Boyle County is heading in the right direction or heading off on the wrong track?

  • 73.6% heading in the right direction, 21% off on the wrong track, 5.3% DK/no opinion

What is the single most important problem that our local area (Boyle County/Danville) needs to solve?

  • 25% Jobs
  • 19.8% Crime
  • 11.9% Prescription drug abuse
  • 11.1% Economic development
  • 9.1% Education
  • 12% DK/no opinion

Do you approve of the way that the following political leaders are handling their job?

  • President Obama: 36.4% approve, 59% disapprove, 4.6% DK/no opinion
  • Senator Rand Paul: 45.8% approve, 41.1% disapprove, 13.1% DK/no opinion
  • Judge Harold McKinney: 67.1% approve, 15.5% disapprove, 17.4% DK/no opinion
    • Of those who approve of Judge McKinney, 78% also voted for him and 22% voted for challenger Lynn Harmon. (excludes DK/no opinion)
    • Of those who disapprove of Judge McKinney, 10% voted for him and 90% voted for challenger Lynn Harmon. (excludes DK/no opinion)

Some of the strongest predictors of voting for Harold McKinney vs. Lynn Harmon for Boyle Judge Executive are Democratic partisanship, levels of education, and whether the voter felt that Danville/Boyle County is on the right track or wrong track:

Harmon (R) McKinney (D)
Democrat 14.4% 85.6% 100%
Independent 37.3% 62.7% 100%
Republican 64.4% 35.6% 100%
  Harmon (R) McKinney (D)
High School 48.3% 51.7% 100%
College Graduate 43.1% 56.9% 100%
Postgraduate 21.5% 78.5% 100%
  Harmon (R) McKinney (D) TOTAL
Right direction 33.7% 66.3% 100%
Wrong direction 52.1% 47.9% 100%

Would you prefer that Rand Paul:

  • Run for president in 2016: 22.5%
  • Run for reelection to Senate in 2016: 46.8%
  • DK/no opinion: 30.8%
  • AMONG REPUBLICANS ONLY: 33.5% run for president, 53% run for reelection to Senate
  • AMONG DEMOCRATS ONLY: 12.8% run for president, 35.1% run for reelection to Senate

Generally speaking, do you think students in your (Danville/Boyle) school district perform:

  • 52.1% better than state average, 34.7% about the same as state average, 6.7% below state average, 6.3% DK/no opinion
  • DANVILLE VOTERS ONLY: 52% better than state average, 39.5% about the same as state average, 8.3% below state average (excludes DK/no opinion)
  • COUNTY VOTERS ONLY: 66.5% better than state average, 29.8% about the same as state average, 3.5% below state average (excludes DK/no opinion)
  • PARENT/GUARDIAN OF STUDENT ONLY: 61.1% better than average, 31.5% about the same as state average, 7.4% below state average (excludes DK/no opinion)

DANVILLE VOTERS ONLY

Do you approve of the way that the following political leaders are handling their job?

  • Danville Mayor Bernie Hunstad: 29.1% approve, 55% disapprove, 15.9% DK/no opinion
  • Danville City Commission: 52.2% approve, 28.3% disapprove, 19.2% DK/no opinion

Do you approve or disapprove of Danville City Commission’s handling of the following issues:

  • Fostering economic growth: 50.4% approve, 32.7% disapprove, 16.8% DK/no opinion
  • Fostering a good quality of life for residents: 61.5% approve, 21.1% disapprove, 17.2% DK/no opinion
  • Management of the city budget: 48.9% approve, 31.7% disapprove, 19.2% DK/no opinion
  • Management of the water plant project: 58.5% approve, 21% disapprove, 20% DK/no opinion

Regarding Danville’s new “Fairness Ordinance,” do you:

  • 29.4% strongly approve, 26.2% somewhat approve, 13.9% somewhat disapprove, 17.8% strongly disapprove, 12.6% DK/no opinion (63.7% approve, 36.3% disapprove when excluding DK/no opinion)
    • DEMOCRATS ONLY: 82.5% approve (excludes DK/no opinion)
    • REPUBLICANS ONLY: 39.1% approve (excludes DK/no opinion)
    • INDEPENDENTS ONLY: 62.2% approve (excludes DK/no opinion)
    • FREQUENT CHURCH ATTENDERS ONLY: 53.4% approve (excludes DK/no opinion)
    • CHURCH NON-ATTENDERS ONLY: 80.4% approve (excludes DK/no opinion)
    • EVANGELICAL PROTESTANT ONLY: 48.8% approve (excludes DK/no opinion)
    • MAINLINE PROTESTANT ONLY: 68.6% approve (excludes DK/no opinion)
    • CATHOLIC: 67.8% approve (excludes DK/no opinion)
    • RELIGIOUSLY NON-AFFILIATED ONLY: 71.8% approve (excludes DK/no opinion)

Mike Perros beat sitting Commissioner Paige Stevens 51%-49%. Some of the strongest predictors of voting for Mayor-Elect Mike Perros are Republican partisanship, disapproval of the current Danville City Commission, approval of Mayor Hunstad, and disapproval of the Danville Fairness Ordinance, and age:

  Stevens Perros TOTAL
Democrat 64.8% 35.2% 100%
Independent 64.8% 35.2% 100%
Republican 42.1% 57.9% 100%
  Stevens Perros TOTAL
Approve of City Commission 64.2% 35.8% 100%
Disapprove of City Commission 39.0% 61.0% 100%
  Stevens Perros TOTAL
Approve of Mayor Hunstad 43.0% 57.0% 100%
Disapprove of Mayor Hunstad 61.1% 38.9% 100%
  Stevens Perros TOTAL
Approve of Fairness Ordinance 64.7% 35.3% 100%
Disapprove of Fairness Ordinance 39.1% 60.9% 100%
Stevens Perros Total
Under 35 63.9% 36.1% 100.0%
35-55 61.1% 38.9% 100.0%
55-75 53.0% 47.0% 100.0%
Over 75 47.0% 53.0% 100.0%

There were also some interesting patterns in voting for Danville City Commission members:

  • Those who voted for J.H. Atkins were also moderately likely to vote for Kevin Caudill and against Kent Mann and Buck Graham. They’re also fairly approving of the City Commission’s handling of various issues and approving of the Fairness Ordinance. They’re also likely to be Democrats and have more education.
  • Kevin Caudill drew support from similar groups as J.H. Atkins, except there’s no clear partisan support one way or another. He also draws more support from those with higher incomes more education.
  • Those who voted for Buck Graham were likely to moderately disapprove of the City Commission’s handling of various issues and to disapprove of the Fairness ordinance. He also drew some support from older voters and Republican voters.
  • Those who voted for Rick Serres were slightly more likely to also vote for Denise Terry but against J.H. Atkins. He also drew some support from more conservative voters and those with higher incomes and more education.
  • Those who voted for Denise Terry and Kent Mann were also likely to have slightly higher approval ratings of Mayor Hunstad but slightly more likely to disapprove of the Commission as a whole.

DEMOCRAPHIC INFORMATION OF ALL SURVEY RESPONDENTS (added 11/5/2014):

Do you consider yourself: Liberal: 22.7%, Moderate: 36.9%, Conservative: 37.4%, 2.9% DK/no opinion

Do you think of yourself as a (an): Democrat/leaner: 47.3%, Independent: 5.3%, Republican/leaner: 43.2%, 4.2% DK/no opinion

Additionally, 53.4% of survey respondents were female, 46.5% male; 61% report an income over $50K/year while 9.9% report an income under $20K/year; 13% report never attending church, 29% report attending sometimes, and 55.1% report attending once a week or more; 10.3% report being a “Tea Party supporter”; 93% report white ethnicity with 5.1% reporting African-American ethnicity; 32.6% report a high school education or less, 36.9% report college level of education, and 29.1% report a post-graduate level of education. 10.7% reported being under 35 years old, 31% reported being between 35-55 years old, 40.3% reported being between 55-75 years old, with 17.7% report being older than 75. Evangelical Protestants make up 38% of the sample, with 27.5% Mainline Protestants, 9.9% Catholic, 8.6% religiously unaffiliated, 5.7% “other” religion.

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4 responses to “2014 Boyle County Exit Poll: Preliminary Results

  1. How could this be? Are there that many people over 75????
    Stevens Perros Total
    Under 35 63.9% 36.1% 100.0%
    35-55 61.1% 38.9% 100.0%
    55-75 53.0% 47.0% 100.0%
    Over 75 47.0% 53.0% 100.0%

    • Great question. There were many individuals who simply declined to answer some of the demographic questions (including age). Thus, this particular figure reports only the results of those who reported their age which are not the entirety of the entire survey sample.

  2. Anyone who attended the Fairness Ordinance meetings will remember how some of those against criticized the Center College poll, and stood against on religious grounds. One man in particular insisted that there is no way that the church-going population in Danville would support such an ordinance. This exit poll shows otherwise. Good job!
    FREQUENT CHURCH ATTENDERS ONLY: 53.4% approve (excludes DK/no opinion)
    CHURCH NON-ATTENDERS ONLY: 80.4% approve (excludes DK/no opinion)
    EVANGELICAL PROTESTANT ONLY: 48.8% approve (excludes DK/no opinion)
    MAINLINE PROTESTANT ONLY: 68.6% approve (excludes DK/no opinion)
    CATHOLIC: 67.8% approve (excludes DK/no opinion)
    RELIGIOUSLY NON-AFFILIATED ONLY: 71.8% approve (excludes DK/no opinion)

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