Demographic voting patterns in the 2012 Danville City Commission election

The following table presents percentages of various sub-groups of the population and how votes for the various 2012 Danville City Commission candidates were distributed among these various population groups. The data is collected from the 2012 Boyle County Exit Poll.

The table should be interpreted like this: the first row indicates that among those who self-identify as liberal, 35% cast a vote for Smiley (first column), 21% for Montgomery (second column), 23% for Louis (third column), etc. Among those who self-identify as conservative (second row), 48% voted for Smiley (first column), 35% for Montgomery (second column), etc.

Meaningful differences should be interpreted by comparing up and down across rows, instead of between columns. Those on the right side of the table have higher values because they got more votes overall and won the election. To see if there is an advantage for any single candidate among different groups, compare the candidate in the same column with figures in different rows. (For example, examining Stevens on the far right column, we see that liberals were 10% more likely to vote for her than conservatives (71% to 61%), while conservatives were 13% more likely to vote for Smiley (48% to 35%).)

  % Smiley % Montgomery % Louis % Hamner % Atkins % Caudill % Stevens
Liberal 35% 21% 23% 58% 71% 64% 71%
Conservative 48% 35% 43% 38% 50% 50% 61%
Democrat 33% 19% 27% 54% 69% 59% 70%
Republican 51% 35% 36% 41% 52% 54% 63%
Income < $20K/year 42% 43% 40% 45% 58% 40% 57%
Income between $20K-$50K/year 48% 32% 35% 46% 53% 50% 61%
Income > $50K/year 39% 24% 27% 51% 65% 60% 69%
Never attend church 33% 21% 23% 62% 64% 60% 74%
Attend church more than 1 per week 42% 26% 33% 44% 58% 56% 66%
High school education 49% 31% 38% 41% 54% 44% 58%
College education 37% 26% 34% 50% 57% 55% 62%
White 44% 26% 32% 50% 61% 58% 68%
Non-white 28% 33% 30% 39% 65% 33% 53%
Female 42% 23% 34% 48% 62% 53% 67%
Male 39% 31% 29% 50% 61% 57% 64%
Under age 30 47% 30% 28% 49% 57% 49% 65%
Age 30-49 40% 32% 31% 54% 57% 54% 64%
Age 50-64 46% 20% 37% 45% 72% 60% 69%
Over age 65 43% 28% 32% 49% 61% 55% 66%
Tea Party supporter 51% 40% 40% 43% 46% 57% 65%
Evangelical 49% 30% 44% 39% 51% 52% 63%
Mainline 39% 19% 23% 55% 69% 69% 74%
Black Protestant 24% 35% 6% 41% 82% 47% 65%
Catholic 46% 37% 31% 46% 59% 56% 62%
Approve Mayor Hunstad 45% 45% 54% 40% 47% 42% 56%
Approve City Commission 42% 41% 46% 45% 53% 41% 59%
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