2012 Boyle County Exit Poll: response rate and actual vs. sample comparisons

RESPONSE RATE:

We had a total of 1,461 individuals who agreed to take our exit poll survey. We asked 1,435 individuals to take the survey but declined. Thus, we asked a total of 2,896 people to take the survey, 1,461 who agreed, leaving us with a response rate of 50.4%, almost exactly the same as the response rate in 2011.

ACTUAL VS. SAMPLE COMPARISONS

  Actual Results Exit Poll Results Difference Weighted exit poll results Difference
Mitt Romney 62.3% 54.2% -8.1% 57.2% -5.1%
Barack Obama 36.2% 41.5% 5.3% 39.1% 2.9%
Brett Guthrie 57.7% 50.2% -7.5% 53.2% -4.5%
David Williams 37.6% 32.3% -5.3% 30.9% -6.7%
Mike Harmon 51.5% 45.6% -5.9% 49.0% -2.5%
Barry Harmon 48.5% 49.3% 0.8% 47.9% -0.6%
Const. Amendment YES 83.4% 80.6% -2.8% 73.5% -9.9%
Const. Amendment NO 16.6% 19.4% 2.8% 17.2% 0.6%
  AVERAGE   -2.6%   -3.2%

The sample this year was off at a slightly higher rate than it was in 2011. Looking at the refusal rates, this is likely due to the disproportionate amount of 65+ age voters who declined to take the survey, compared to 2011. (Fewer senior citizens led to a slightly more Democratic-leaning response set in the partisan questions.)

Overall, though, the average difference between the actual and sample figures is 2.6% (unweighted) or 3.2% (weighted for gender and age), an impressive amount either way.

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