2012 presidential popular vote forecasts

Here’s a summary of two-party vote forecasts in tomorrow’s presidential election:

  • Political science forecasting models. October’s issue of PS: Political Science and Politics contained nine statistical forecast models (not including state-level models) of President Obama’s two-party vote total for the 2012 election, made anywhere from 2-10 months before the election. They ranged from a low of 46.9% to a high of 53.8%. The mean of all nine was 50.2%.
  • As of 8:00 PM on Election Eve, Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight is predicting Obama will receive 51.4% of the two-party popular vote.
  • As of 9:30 PM on Election Eve, Simon Jackson’s model at Pollster.com is giving Obama 50.6% of the two-party popular vote.

We’ll see what happens tomorrow… and how close each of these estimates were.

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