Expect more hyper-polarization in the next Congress

President Obama recently opined that there will be less polarization in Congress after his (predicted) re-election this fall. In this case, I’m inclined to disagree with the President’s assessment. If anything, polarization will likely get worse:

However, our research suggests that polarization — that is, the distance between the means of the Republican and Democratic Party means — will continue to worsen in the 113th Senate. … [W]e compare the predicted ideological distributions of the 113th Senate with those of the current, 112th Senate. In all three scenarios, the polarization measure (the distance between the Democratic and Republican means) is higher in the 113th Senate. The jump in polarization is not huge, but these results do suggest that the next Senate is not likely to be any more productive than the current Senate and will instead be somewhat more gridlocked.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s