President Obama recently opined that there will be less polarization in Congress after his (predicted) re-election this fall. In this case, I’m inclined to disagree with the President’s assessment. If anything, polarization will likely get worse:
However, our research suggests that polarization — that is, the distance between the means of the Republican and Democratic Party means — will continue to worsen in the 113th Senate. … [W]e compare the predicted ideological distributions of the 113th Senate with those of the current, 112th Senate. In all three scenarios, the polarization measure (the distance between the Democratic and Republican means) is higher in the 113th Senate. The jump in polarization is not huge, but these results do suggest that the next Senate is not likely to be any more productive than the current Senate and will instead be somewhat more gridlocked.