A few posts out today on the likely effect of Romney’s eventual VP pick on the horse-race:
Most political scientists are in general agreement: the VP pick likely won’t move national support for Romney one way or the other. However, there’s some statistical evidence that Romney might get a small bump (<2-3%) in the VP’s home state.
According to Larry Sabato, the top 5 finalists likely include:
- Tim Pawlenty, Minnesota
- Rob Portman, Ohio
- Marco Rubio, Florida
- Bobby Jindal, Louisiana
- Paul Ryan, Wisconsin
According to Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, Obama is currently favored by 8 points in Minnesota, 7 points in Wisconsin, 3 points in Ohio, and is essentially tied with Romney in Florida. (Romney’s got a 20 point advantage in Louisiana.)
If I were Romney, that would lead me to take an extra-hard look at Portman and Rubio. Both Ohio and Florida are close enough that a VP pick of either Portman or Rubio might be enough to tip the scales in those states.