The likely electoral consequences of the eventual VP pick

A few posts out today on the likely effect of Romney’s eventual VP pick on the horse-race:

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/opinion-la/la-ol-dick-cheney-sarah-palin-mitt-romney-20120730,0,4413519.story

http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2012/07/31/a-quote-with-disclaimer/

Most political scientists are in general agreement: the VP pick likely won’t move national support for Romney one way or the other. However, there’s some statistical evidence that Romney might get a small bump (<2-3%) in the VP’s home state. 

According to Larry Sabato, the top 5 finalists likely include: 

  • Tim Pawlenty, Minnesota
  • Rob Portman, Ohio
  • Marco Rubio, Florida
  • Bobby Jindal, Louisiana
  • Paul Ryan, Wisconsin

According to Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, Obama is currently favored by 8 points in Minnesota, 7 points in Wisconsin, 3 points in Ohio, and is essentially tied with Romney in Florida. (Romney’s got a 20 point advantage in Louisiana.) 

If I were Romney, that would lead me to take an extra-hard look at Portman and Rubio. Both Ohio and Florida are close enough that a VP pick of either Portman or Rubio might be enough to tip the scales in those states.

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