Obama’s prospects for re-election are improving

Several months ago I posted that Obama’s shot at re-election was about 50/50. With an ever-so-slowly improving economy, gradually decreasing unemployment, and lack of major international crisis or domestic scandal, I would guesstimate that Obama’s odds of re-election are, as of now, somewhere between 55%-60%. This “guesstimation” is generally supported by most polling data and forecasting models, though (see here, here, and here, e.g.).

Of course, a lot can change between now and November. Assuming all the metrics remain roughly where they are today, though, I would be cautiously optimistic about Obama’s re-election prospects this fall.

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