Here are my predictions from yesterday, along with the results and a brief evaluation:
- Democrats will maintain control of the U.S. Senate. – YES, although this was a fairly safe prediction to make.
- Whichever party ends up winning the U.S. House, they will enjoy a majority of no more than 8 seats. – NO! I was way off on this one. Republicans won, but with a projected margin of 25 seats.
- If Republicans DO win the House, they (and the media) will interpret it as a mandate from the public to repeal the healthcare law, extend tax cuts for the wealthy, and obstruct President Obama at every turn… when it will likely be more the result of the fact that the economy isn’t doing as well as the public would like and the Democrats simply have more seats to lose this election. – YES. Last night Speaker-elect Boehner claimed that the results of the election are a mandate to “change course” from the Obama administration’s policies and that it was an endorsement of the Republican platform. Wrong. Most exit polls showed clearly that voters didn’t much like Republicans, or their policies, any more than they liked Democrats. The results of the election were more a signal of frustration with the economy and high unemployment than anything else.
- Despite it being an “anti-incumbent year”, more than 90% of incumbents will be reelected. – TOO SOON TO TELL – the data hasn’t yet been compiled on this one.
- Despite public uproar over the bailouts, deficits, and healthcare reform, national turnout will be lower than 40%. – YES/NO, depending on what measure you use. If you go by the % of voting-age population (VAP) that turned out, I nailed it, as the VAP turnout was 38.2%. If you go by the voting-eligible population (VEP), though, which excludes noncitizens, felons, etc. from the calculation who aren’t eligible to vote, I was a little low with my estimate, as 41.4% of the VEP turned out.
- Rand Paul will beat Jack Conway in Kentucky’s Senate race. – YES
- Ben Chandler will beat Andy Barr in Kentucky’s 6th congressional race. – YES, but in a nail-biter squeaker of only about 600 votes out of more than a quarter million cast.
- Jamey Gay will win Danville’s mayoral race, but by a very small margin (less than 5%). – NO. I was right that it would be less than 5%, but wrong about the winner.
- Caudill, Hamner, Crowley, and Louis will win Danville’s four city commission seats. – NO, but I was 2 for 4. Louis and Caudill won, but Hamner and Crowley did not.
Overall prediction success: 4 correct predictions, 2 incorrect predictions, 2 partially correct predictions, and 1 yet to be determined.