Election Day predictions

Today is Election Day. I predict that…

  • Democrats will maintain control of the U.S. Senate.
  • Whichever party ends up winning the U.S. House, they will enjoy a majority of no more than 8 seats.
  • If Republicans DO win the House, they (and the media) will interpret it as a mandate from the public to repeal the healthcare law, extend tax cuts for the wealthy, and obstruct President Obama at every turn… when it will likely be more the result of the fact that the economy isn’t doing as well as the public would like and the Democrats simply have more seats to lose this election.
  • Despite it being an “anti-incumbent year”, more than 90% of incumbents will be reelected.
  • Despite public uproar over the bailouts, deficits, and healthcare reform, national turnout will be lower than 40%.
  • Rand Paul will beat Jack Conway in Kentucky’s Senate race.
  • Ben Chandler will beat Andy Barr in Kentucky’s 6th congressional race.
  • Jamey Gay will win Danville’s mayoral race, but by a very small margin (less than 5%).
  • Caudill, Hamner, Crowley, and Louis will win Danville’s four city commission seats.

Remember to go vote!

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