The latest edition of PS: Political Science and Politics contains a series of five political science forecasts of the outcome of the midterm congressional elections. A summary is accessible by clicking here.
All five forecasts predict that the Republicans will gain seats this November (which is the expectation based on historical precedent). Three models predict that Republicans will re-take the House while the other two predict that Democrats will maintain a slim majority. Each forecast, however, has a wide margin of error. In other words, it’s a true toss-up!