An article is out today in the Washington Post: “Five myths about midterm elections.” It’s co-authored by Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist who wrote one of the textbooks that I assign in my Parties and Voting Behavior class at Centre College. The article makes the following interesting arguments about this fall’s election:
- The results of the 2010 midterm election will have little to no effect on the outcome of the 2012 presidential election.
- Despite conventional wisdom that it’s an “anti-incumbent year,” most incumbents will win re-election.
- Obama’s rhetorical successes or failures will have little effect on the outcome of the midterm election.
- While the results of the election might be affected by the BP oil spill, Obama’s support for a mosque in New York City, the health care law, or immigration… in all likelihood it’ll be all about the economy.
- The results of this fall’s election will not provide a “mandate” for the winning party in Congress.
The article can be found here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/12/AR2010081203591.html