2011 Boyle County Exit Poll – Preliminary Results

Here are the preliminary results from the 2011 Boyle County Exit Poll, administered by Centre College. I will be analyzing the results in more detail over the coming days and weeks. For now, however, here are the basics:

This exit poll was administered to Boyle County voters on November 8, 2011. Respondents were randomly selected by interviewers to participate in the survey. Centre College students enrolled in Professor Benjamin Knoll’s GOV 110 (Introduction to Politics) and GOV 336 (Public Opinion and Voting Behavior) courses participated in designing and administering the exit poll. Students were on-site from 6:00 AM through 6:00 PM surveying voters as they left the polling locations. In all, 1,313 Boyle County voters (including 976 from Danville) participated in the exit poll. The following statistics have a margin of error of ±2.4% for questions given to all Boyle County voters and ±2.8 for questions administered specifically to Danville voters. The data presented here are weighted for age, race, and gender.

ALL BOYLE COUNTY VOTERS

What is the single most important problem that our local area (Boyle County) needs to solve?

  • 38.3% – Jobs
  • 20.0% – Economic development
  • 10.2% – Prescription drug abuse

Do you approve of the way that the following political leaders are handling their job?

  • President Obama: 32.3% approve, 65.4% disapprove, 2.3% no opinion
  • Senator Mitch McConnell: 37.1% approve, 58.3% disapprove, 4.6% no opinion
  • Senator Rand Paul: 45.5% approve, 48.5% disapprove, 6% no opinion
  • Congressman Ben Chandler: 40.5% approve, 52.2% disapprove, 7.3% no opinion
  • Boyle Judge-Executive Harold McKinney: 69% approve, 18.5%% disapprove, 12.5% no opinion

DANVILLE VOTERS ONLY

If you had to choose, would you prefer that Danville focus its economic development on the downtown area or the business corridor along the bypass?

  • 50.9% downtown area, 32.8% bypass business corridor, 16.3% no opinion

Do you think Danville and Boyle school districts should merge?

  • 41.6% yes, 44.5% no, 14% no opinion

Do you approve of the way that the following political leaders are handling their job?

  • Danville City Commission: 28.6% approve, 57.6% disapprove, 13.8% no opinion
  • Mayor Bernie Hunstad: 29.3% approve, 55% disapprove, 15.7% no opinion
  • Commissioner J.H. Atkins: 53.5% approve, 22.8% disapprove, 24.7% no opinion
  • Commissioner Kevin Caudill: 54.7% approve, 22.4% disapprove, 23% no opinion
  • Commissioner Ryan Montgomery: 31% approve, 44% disapprove, 25% no opinion
  • Commissioner Norma Gail Louis: 34.9% approve, 43.9% disapprove, 21.2% no opinion

Generally speaking, do you believe Danville is heading in the right direction or heading off on the wrong track?

  • 43.4% right direction, 42.8% on the wrong track, 13.6% no opinion

Do you approve or disapprove of Danville City Commission’s decision to fire former city manager Paul Stansbury?

  • 25.8% approve, 50.4% disapprove, 23.8% no opinion

It should be noted that these last few answers are all highly correlated. Those who approve of the commission and specifically Mayor Hunstad and Commissioners Montgomery and Louis are also very likely to indicate that they believe that Danville is headed in the right direction and agree with the decision to fire Paul Stansbury.

All in all, those who approve of the commission and its recent decisions make up approximately 30-35% of Danville’s voters, with approximately 50%-55% disapproving. The remaining 15%-20% did not indicate an opinion one way or another.

OTHER DEMOGRAPHIC/PARTISAN CHARACTERISTICS OF BOYLE COUNTY VOTERS

  • 19.2% liberal, 38% moderate, 40.4% conservative
  • 45.9% Democrat or Independent-lean-Democrat, 6.4% Independent, 43.7% Republican or Independent-lean-Republican
  • Which television/radio outlet do you follow the most? 27.9% local news, 23.8% Fox News, 14.3% NPR
  • From what you know, do you agree or disagree with the Tea Party movement? 47.9% agree, 45.6% disagree
  • Do you consider yourself a Tea Party member? 3.5% yes, 95.9% no
  • 49% female, 51% male
  • 94.7% white, 4.4% African-American, 0.8% “other” race, 0.1% Hispanic/Latino
  • 6.2% age 18-29, 23.1% age 30-44, 45.1% age 45-64, 25.5% age 65+
  • 1% Centre College student
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One response to “2011 Boyle County Exit Poll – Preliminary Results

  1. Good of you to do this, Ben, and to involve your students in it directly. I was included in the poll–the students were very professional. I’ll be interested to see what other conclusions you are able to draw.

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